foosas

The form you have linked is very heavy with a LOT of required questions. I would recommend removing and making most of them optional. ex. Snorlax is a common Route 11 and Route 16 (Kanto) swarm, but I don't have the data of when it last spawned. Wartortle and Slowking both spawn at Cape Brink

Great service, extremely useful for catching events

Bernoulli process is a list of independent variables that meets some conditions. It leads to a distribution where if n>1 then its a binomial distribution. In this case we are taking N>1 independent events with a yes (shiny) and no (not shiny) outcome with p(yes) as 1/30000. This (and independence of the events) make for a binomial distribution. When n = 1 a bernoulli distribution is a special case of binomial distribution

Thank you for that correction. The point was that at any given number of encounters you have an idea of how probable or improbably you might be on your journey to the magic encounter. The odds of how against you or for you the odds can be. Does a binomial fit here?

Hey there, Being roasted by a lot of my own team and would love to just have a GM or Dev step in to help settle a debate. First, this post is not a "hot take" on how fair shiny rate is. It's 1/30K. This is to discuss if you can apply a binomial distribution to the approximation of outcomes over a fixed number of encounters (trials) Based on this statement we know that the odds of getting a shiny in any encounter is INDEPENDENT from any other encounter. We also know that the odds do not improve from encounter to encounter for a majority of players (anti-cheat measures excluded here) Thus we can use a binomial distribution to tell someone their statistical likelihood of seeing at least 1 shiny in X encounters. This does not guarantee anyone a shiny on their next encounter or mean that their ODDS in any one encounter are improving, but that their overall chances are improving. Then we can use a calculator to express the P(shiny) = 1/30,000 and make up a number of trials = encounters as 50,000. The odds of not seeing at least one shiny over 50,000 encounters is 81.1%. This does not mean you have an 81.1% chance of getting a shiny in 50,000 encounters. This does not mean that you have to wait 50,000 encounters to see a shiny, or that you can't get a shiny on encounter 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 One way to interpret this is that if 1,000,000 players did 50,000 encounters each, each one would have ~81% chance to see at least 1 shiny in their 50K encounters. I would love to hear from some other stats enthusiasts or a GM to help settle it! https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Roselia has been moved, but Rapidash looks like it still exists in the same spot

Reporting in from Mac land that it is not working. Thanks to all the devs for taking a look, team Mac appreciates it