Atricos Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 (edited) Edited September 11, 2021 by Atricos Corrected 2 typos: Section 1.1: "probabiliy" -> "probability"; Section 1.2: "guarantee that if the ..." -> "guarantee that the" Lepott, Harmonia2Side, ronarid and 20 others 12 10 1 Link to comment
Atricos Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 For a full version, check this Imgur album: https://imgur.com/a/NXfd3Ay Link to comment
Gilan Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 (edited) Now I have a paper to link to people when they ask what they should do in the safari. Edited September 19, 2021 by Gilan Harmonia2Side, FighterChamp, Atricos and 2 others 5 Link to comment
Atricos Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 I already found 2 typos, but disregarding those, I think it's understandable. Link to comment
Imperial Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 I just wanna catch some Pokemon man ... Credeil, PinkWings, JohntheJester and 4 others 7 Link to comment
Atricos Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 Corrected 2 typos: - Section 1.1: "probabiliy" -> "probability" - Section 1.2: "guarantee that if the ..." -> "guarantee that the ..." Link to comment
Atricos Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 1 minute ago, HEARTEATERS said: wrong Please elaborate, which part have I made mistake(s) in? Link to comment
Quinn010 Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 thx bro i always needed this kind of proof Atricos 1 Link to comment
EssDeeCee Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 Interesting read. The downfall is that this is that it goes so far over the heads of the community who can't even figure out a basic percentage. Link to comment
Atricos Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, EssDeeCee said: Interesting read. The downfall is that this is that it goes so far over the heads of the community who can't even figure out a basic percentage. While definitely true, there isn't a much simpler method of proving this. I included the "simple explanation" in Section 2.1, so maybe if someone's not too well versed in probability theory, they can understand that non-rigorous reasoning. EssDeeCee 1 Link to comment
Juaske Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 I hope you accounted for dn when doing these calculations awkways 1 Link to comment
CaptnBaklava Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 I'm a simple man, I see mons I throw balls. Good to see that my strategy is proofed now. Quint, Atricos and Jgaw 2 1 Link to comment
Bryce Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 Or just like...don't go there. Link to comment
Kiralexis Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 It makes me wonder why these features are even implemented in the game. If they're not actually serving a purpose, why have they been here since Generation 1? Did the formulas change over the years, or is it a PokeMMO thing? Please elaborate on your data points and where it was gathered from. Also, at the start, you assume the player has infinite Pokeballs. What if the player has exactly 1 Safari Ball left? What should they do then, if they've only got the 1 shot? Link to comment
Atricos Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, Kiralexis said: It makes me wonder why these features are even implemented in the game. If they're not actually serving a purpose, why have they been here since Generation 1? Did the formulas change over the years, or is it a PokeMMO thing? Please elaborate on your data points and where it was gathered from. Also, at the start, you assume the player has infinite Pokeballs. What if the player has exactly 1 Safari Ball left? What should they do then, if they've only got the 1 shot? - The Safari Zone did have a lot of changes over the generations, check the various links on this side: https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Safari_Zone As far as I know, the current mechanics that are in PokeMMO are a simplified version of the Generation 4 mechanics. - It is a valid critique of my method that I ingored the fact that the player could run out of balls. It could definitely happen that the player is very low on balls, is unlikely to catch the Pokémon because of this, so throwing a Rock would be beneficial to raise the catch rate. However that analysis is suddenly way-WAY more complicated, as not only do we need to modify the infinite graph to one that has a given length (the number of balls the player has remaning), suddenly mixed strategies become viable - after using some Safari Balls that don't catch, maybe it's better to throw a Rock so that the catch rate increases. If I have time, I will try to do a full analysis on that, but that would be like 3-4 times longer. - As for the exact question on "What to do if the player has exactly 1 Safari Ball left", I believe the answer depends on the catch rate and flee rate, and I would need to calculate that. Link to comment
Paul Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 2 hours ago, Juaske said: I hope you accounted for dn when doing these calculations dn? Juaske 1 Link to comment
Quakkz Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 Mfw people put more effort in proving catch rates than I did in my bachelor thesis JohntheJester, Jgaw, RysPicz and 6 others 8 1 Link to comment
Juaske Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Paul said: dn? The DeciNewton Link to comment
Paul Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, Juaske said: The DeciNewton not the answer I was hoping for.. JohntheJester and Obvi 2 Link to comment
Imperial Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Quakkz said: Mfw people put more effort in proving catch rates than I did in my bachelor thesis This was probably the guy's dissertation project for his maths degree at uni - either way I'm impressed Edited September 12, 2021 by Imperial Link to comment
Damian Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 Hey, I really appreciate all of the work you did on this! Having said that, it's possible that the assumptions we've made are naive in terms of the mechanics of the balls and baits. A fairly detailed document has been produced on the matter, and since the game uses Safari Zone mechanics from FireRed (as far as I know), it's likely that it will be applicable to our use case:https://www.docdroid.net/Tx5NbeU/safari-zone-research-pdf Let me know your thoughts on this and the optimum play patterns they describe! JohntheJester 1 Link to comment
Atricos Posted September 12, 2021 Author Share Posted September 12, 2021 (edited) 5 hours ago, DamianTe said: Hey, I really appreciate all of the work you did on this! Having said that, it's possible that the assumptions we've made are naive in terms of the mechanics of the balls and baits. A fairly detailed document has been produced on the matter, and since the game uses Safari Zone mechanics from FireRed (as far as I know), it's likely that it will be applicable to our use case:https://www.docdroid.net/Tx5NbeU/safari-zone-research-pdf Let me know your thoughts on this and the optimum play patterns they describe! That study looks fascinating! I've only skimmed though it so far, I'll read it in detail soon. I was wondering, do we actually have an official confirmation that the PokeMMO Safari mechanics work with the Kanto method? Since then my calculations wouldn't be applicible for the game. (Though they're still true if we assume what's described in Section 1.2.) Edit: It seems that the study acknowledges that it's outdated, since it says "The Safari Game mechanics were overhauled to more closely resemble the one in the Hoenn Safari Zone." Though I'm still not sure if that's how PokeMMO works. Edited September 12, 2021 by Atricos Link to comment
YoYoo Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 I might be saying something stupid here and probably completely wrong, but isn't it true that the part of eating the bait has nothing to do with the percentages? And the pokemon won't flee while eating it? And if so, did you factored those extra poke balls you get to throw meanwhile? Again, this mechanic is probably only in my head and not true at all xD Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment
Kyotshe Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 (edited) Smart with numbers, me believe smart. Edited September 14, 2021 by Kyotshe CrzPapel 1 Link to comment
FighterChamp Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 You explained maths better than college professors Link to comment
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