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Shiny hunters, help!


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The thing is, i got 3000 hordes looking for shiny magikarp, no luck for me. I got the money to buy one from gtl but still i want the OT. Should i buy a donator status ticket and shiny amulet and keep going ahother week or just buy it from gtl, what would you recommend?

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3000 hordes = 15000 magikarps, with the rate being 1/30k your odds of getting a shiny in 15000 encounters are only 40%, or in other words , it was more likely you wouldnt get it.
For comparison if you'd done your encounters on donator status your odds would've been 43% to get it , 57% not to get it, only a 3% difference. So donator is definetly not necessary, just keep hunting and you'll find it eventually bud, good luck

Edited by Juaske
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1 hour ago, Juaske said:

3000 hordes = 15000 magikarps, with the rate being 1/30k your odds of getting a shiny in 15000 encounters are only 40%, or in other words , it was more likely you wouldnt get it.
For comparison if you'd done your encounters on donator status your odds would've been 43% to get it , 57% not to get it, only a 3% difference. So donator is definetly not necessary, just keep hunting and you'll find it eventually bud, good luck

15000 is the half of 30k.

Why the odds aren't 50%?

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5 minutes ago, ScizoMonkey said:

15000 is the half of 30k.

Why the odds aren't 50%?

If you do 30000 encounters you're not guaranteed a shiny, so the odds arent 100%, in the same way, if you do 15000 encounters your odds are not 50%, and if you do 10000 encounters your odds arent 33% etc. When calculating probabilty we multiply, we dont add so the odds never get to 100%

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I won't break ur ambition, but shunting is money wasting, energy draining, wasted time.

If ur priority is an OT so im pretty sure u ll get it just keep spammin sweet scent and u ll get the golden fish, if ur priority is gaining money from shinies, then i advise u not to keep hunting. 

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@RychellIt took me few weeks but it's one of the easiest shunting spots out there. Donator not really necessary but if you're rich enough to not care go for it. I personally found mine with donator + charm. However I have found around 20 or so OT without donator either, so there's no guaranteed working strategy out there. All the best!

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always depends on luck so that hunt can finishs early or maybe lately , my maikarp hunt took like 1 week it was my fisrt shiny , just keep hunting and always say with yourself "shiny tomorrow" if you didnt find say that ill find it again tomorrow and keep like that until get it , you will find it ofc , good luck !

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You were right guys, I was  close to get it, BUT, let me tell you a little story here. In the past july 26th, horde #3895 the shiny showed up.

Screenshot_20220725-232813.thumb.png.57ce79403836b4a9af1a8f665b306480.png

 

I was very happy until my battery run out. When I could reconnect my session was ended by the server, I lost the shiny.

Screenshot_20220725-232537.png.6f7291facb0ccc14788cff4f5e414a08.png

The message below in this screenshot say the following: "Some actions were restricted for 18 seconds because you were defeated when you logged out".  

 

After that I was crying for about 20 minutes then I posted another thread here wich was deleted dueste to some language rules I didnt know (you can't make threads enterely and only on spanish language. @Sethwarned me about).

 

Took an enterely day for rest, I was very dissapointed. Yesterday I began looking for the shiny again, I didnt reset the counter, now I am 5500 hordes, and battery full hahah😅, that's all. Wish me luck, I will put a screenshot with the shiny here when I get it. And thank you all for the support and good will 🙌 

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29 minutes ago, Rychell said:

You were right guys, I was  close to get it, BUT, let me tell you a little story here. In the past july 26th, horde #3895 the shiny showed up.

Screenshot_20220725-232813.thumb.png.57ce79403836b4a9af1a8f665b306480.png

 

I was very happy until my battery run out. When I could reconnect my session was ended by the server, I lost the shiny.

Screenshot_20220725-232537.png.6f7291facb0ccc14788cff4f5e414a08.png

The message below in this screenshot say the following: "Some actions were restricted for 18 seconds because you were defeated when you logged out".  

 

After that I was crying for about 20 minutes then I posted another thread here wich was deleted dueste to some language rules I didnt know (you can't make threads enterely and only on spanish language. @Sethwarned me about).

 

Took an enterely day for rest, I was very dissapointed. Yesterday I began looking for the shiny again, I didnt reset the counter, now I am 5500 hordes, and battery full hahah😅, that's all. Wish me luck, I will put a screenshot with the shiny here when I get it. And thank you all for the support and good will 🙌 

You will get it before you know it ^^ Good luck!

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On 7/25/2022 at 5:46 AM, ScizoMonkey said:

15000 is the half of 30k.

Why the odds aren't 50%?

odds are independent, not static, they don't add up, each encounter has 1/30k chance of being shiny, no matter how many you have done in the past. Therefor you need to calc that accordingly, and not assume it's 50%.

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