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About rate shiny


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It is 1/30k every encounter (assuming no shiny charm or donator status) 

 

If its an egg hatch, or single encounter, flat rate applies. If its a 5x horde its considered 1/6k because you technically roll the 1/30k 5 times at once....but its still rolling 1/30k

 

The time between your last shiny and your next shiny is irrelevant. You can get a shiny on your very first ever encounter doing the storyline, or many months down the road when youre done the region. You can get 2 in a row, or get 2 in 1 horde. Theres many different possibilities but the rate is always 1/30k

 

Donator status will drop it to 1/27k

 

Shiny charm will drop it to 1/27k

 

Donator Status and shiny charm will drop it to 1/24k

 

Donator status is not to be confused with "free shiny". Buying one doesnt mean you get a shiny "at some time" during the 7/14/30 days. Its simply a donation that supports the server and there additional benefits like extra exp and lower hatch times

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For a single encounter the shiny chance without boosts is 1/30k while the non-shiny chance is 29,999/30k but the probability of rolling a non-shiny (29,999/30k) twice or 30k times is different. For every consecutive 29,999/30k you get, the next roll has a lower chance of being a 29,999/30k roll (non-shiny). What this means is that you get lower odds of rolling a non-shiny roll with more rolls. For example:

For 2 consecutive non-shiny rolls the odds would be (29,999/30k x 29,999/30k = 0.9999333344)

For 3 consecutive non-shiny rolls the odds would be (29,999/30k x 29,999/30k x 29,999/30k = 0.9999000033)

And so on.. 

 

The non-shiny roll is so high that even after 100 rolls you still have over a 90% probability of rolling a non-shiny but, the probability of the path to get a shiny does get better the more you shunt. It is for this reason why people who shunt more simply get more shinies. So simply put yes, encountering more mons puts you on a path with a higher probability to get shiny.

Edited by BrokenJoker
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