Sonneborn Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 (edited) A phenomena is a special encounter which occurs randomly and cyclic in all areas of Unova and has 4 appearances: Rustling Grass, Rippling Water, Flying Shadow and Dust Clouds. There are exclusive species to phenomena, encounters have a >50% chance to have at least one 31 IV, and it may drop Mysterious Gems or Fossils.¹ EDIT: Please see the second answer for updated calculation. Original post with presumably incorrect assumptions: It is believed only a single phenomena at a time spawns for t = 15min for the whole server², and afterwards it "jumps" to another location³. There are n = 177 known phenomena locations⁴. So we can conclude, that for a single location there is a chance of per hour for a phenomena to appear. Q.E.D. ¹ https://forums.pokemmo.eu/index.php?/topic/76118-changelog-27022018/ ² http://boards.4channel.org/vp/thread/38677228/pokemmo-general-v-06-pmmog-tripfag-edition#p38688626 ³ http://boards.4channel.org/vp/thread/38677228/pokemmo-general-v-06-pmmog-tripfag-edition#p38688523 ⁴ https://forums.pokemmo.eu/index.php?/topic/77087-phenomenon-locations-guide/ Edited June 7, 2019 by Sonneborn Link to updated answer bcool, frrrredi, Eggplant and 1 other 4 Link to comment
MightyBoxer Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 From my pheno hunting for data collecting.i can confirm there is 2 pheno and sometimes they are active at the same time.And from the few rare lucky times i had the luck to see a pheno spawn right in from of me i was able to time it to exactly 10minutes.Tested that a few times from the luck of it spawning in front of me and it was always 10 minutes. Sonneborn 1 Link to comment
Sonneborn Posted June 7, 2019 Author Share Posted June 7, 2019 That are great insights which i sadly missed upon creating this thread. Here is the updated calculation: Here is the LaTeX Source Code: Spoiler \begin{align*} k &= 2 & \text{Concurrent phenonema spawns} \\ n &= 177 & \text{Known phenomena locations} \\ t_{up} &= 10\text{ min} & \text{Time of a single phenonema spawn being active} \\ t_{down} &= [5, 15]\text{ min} & \text{Cooldown time before a phenomena respawns after being up} \\ \tilde{t}_{down} &= 10\text{ min} & \text{Let's take the average downtime for simplicity} \\ \\ p(\text{phenomena}) &= \frac{k}{n} * \frac{60}{t_{up} + \tilde{t}_{down}} & \text{Probability for a phenomena to appear at a given location per hour} \\ &= \frac{2}{177} * \frac{60}{20} = 0.0339 \\ &= 3.39\% \end{align*} frrrredi and pikabuuh 2 Link to comment
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