Yeah one incident totally proves everything wrong. Fleeing cannot be accounted for, since it's based on a different system that revolves around a randomly given number, so we can't calculate for it. At best, it factors in how many balls you can throw at it before it flees, and again, that's if we're given this number (which they don't). The chart here is to demonstrate what method yields the highest probability of catching if we were to use all 30 balls, and does not flee.