scarface78987

Leggo MONO

gg

I'll take monotype

GG daryl if only i intimidated there

I'll go mono

6v6 mono will be interesting

FireTail ovviamente c'è

I'm not sz doe, i'm fire

I can take mono after dinner

Taily Fire is coming too

Fyi, in this game hidden powers base power is always 70 whatever the IVs are. :)

Hello everybody :) First of all, this is not a guide about a 100% verified method of finding shiny pokemon. It's just some information for those of you who are interested in shiny hunting and for those who wonder how shiny encounters work. First of all, I apologize for my English. I will make some mistakes here and there since it's not my native language. If any of you can't stand doing maths or following a brief probability lesson, i suggest you press the "back" button on your browser. There are a lot of other guides out there. We'll divide this "guide" in 3 chapters, or questions: 1 - How are shiny encounters determined? 2 - What's the actual probability of finding a shiny? 3 - How long will it take? 1. HOW ARE SHINY ENCOUNTERS DETERMINED Some people complain about the fact that they didn't find a single shiny throughout their 3k hours playtime but some newbie just found a rare shiny. The fact is, it's all about probability. There's the exact same chance of finding a shiny if you walk in the grass after 1 hour playtime or after 3k hours. In statistics, wild encounters are called indipendent events. Such events are not influenced by one another, so the chance of finding a shiny when you walk in the grass stays always the same and this guide would have no point. What we are trying to measure, though, is the probability of finding a shiny within a given number of encounters. Let's start with the basics: the chance of finding a shiny is 1/8192, which is approximately 0,000122 in decimal and translates in a probability of 0,01% Donator status improves this rate by 10%. 10% of 8192 is roughly 819 so 1/(8192-819)=1/7373 which is about 0,000136 in decimal and the probability is increased very slightly. Basically every time you encounter a wild pokemon, the computer generates a random number between 1 and 8192. If that number is a specific number (like, for example, the number 8192 itself) the pokemon turns out to be shiny, else it's just another useless catch (better catch anyway, it might be a wild comp!) :D You can think of it like this: every time you encounter a pokemon you roll a dice. If you get 6, the pokemon is shiny, else the pokemon is not shiny. The fact that you got the number 2 on the first try doesn't improve your chance of getting 6 on the next try, hence the rolls are indipendent from one another. It's the same concept but with a 8192-sided dice. Hopefully this is clear so I won't have to hear again things like "you have to encounter 8192 pokemon in the grass to get a shiny one" or "if you leave the grass mid-hunt the counter resets". 2. WHAT'S THE ACTUAL PROBABILITY OF FINDING A SHINY? In statistics, when we refer to probability, we usually talk of probability distribution and density of probability. (skip this part if you don't want to deal with maths) Suppose to throw a balanced coin 3 times, and you want to calculate the probability of getting AT LEAST one heads within those 3 tries. You can do this pretty easily just by writing down the outcomes of the throws: (O meaning heads, X meaning tails) 1. OOO 2. OOX 3. OXO 4. XOO 5. OXX 6. XOX 7. XXO 8. XXX Basically we get at least one heads in every case except the number 8 (3 tails). Since the probability of getting heads or tails is 1/2, the probability of each outcome is 1/2 times 1/2 times 1/2 which is 1/8. So basically, going back to out problem, we can find out the solution with two methods: 1) Summing the favourable cases probabilities (which are 7) getting 7/8 = 87,5% 2) Taking the maximum probability (100%, which for us is 1) and subtracting the probability of the only case that's unfavourable, so 1-1/8=7/8 so 87,5% If we consider a dice roll instead of a coin throw, the complexity of the problem increases. For example, 1,3,2,5,2,3 and 4,3,2,1,4,5 are both "bad" cases and we need to subtract both their probabilities from our 100%. Moreover, on each combination we need to consider that the digits can be arranged in many different ways, like 1,1,1,2,2,2 and 1,1,2,2,2,1 so we multiply for the newton binomial form. Putting all of these together we get the following formula, which gives the probability of obtaining k succesful events and n-k unsuccesful events. where: p = probability of success n = number of attempts k = number of successes Now let's think about shiny pokemon. The probability of finding exactly k shiny pokemon within n attempts is (let's say we want k=1 shiny pokemon within n=8192 attempts): which is approximately 36.8%. Since we have to consider also the (more unlikely) cases where we find exactly 2, 3, 4 ... shiny pokemon we need to sum them all up, hence: The probability of finding at least one shiny pokemon within 8192 wild encounters is then 63%. This could also be done using the method number 2 of the dice roll example, using 100%-36.8%=63.2% We can do this calculation with more encounters, and the probability will increase when you increase n but it will never reach 100%. There will always be a slight, slight, chance to never get a shiny until the end of times, so yeah if you're a very unlucky person this is the part when you start crying. 3. HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE? I'll try to make this quick. Let's say that it takes 15 seconds (if you're pretty slow) to encounter and payday/run from a wild pokemon. So basically in 1 minute you will encounter 4 pokemon, and in 1 hour you will encounter 4x60 = 240 wild pokemon. You will need 8192/240 = about 34 hours to encounter 8192 pokemon. So, according to our previous estimate, if you go 1 hour a day shiny hunting (you can payday in the meantime) in a rare shiny spot like the one near meteor falls, you will get yourself a shiny in approximately 1 month, with a chance of 63%. If you do this for 2 months, the probability will increase to 73% and so on. Now let's say you want that shiny charmander. Since charmander's encounter rate is roughly 5% (need confirmation on this) in mt. ember, we can make the following statements: 1 - If we find 240 pokemon per hour, we can say 12 of those (this is a mean value) are charmanders 2 - We need to multiply by 20 the time we calculated earlier, so we'd need 680 hours (over 22 months doing 1 hour a day) to encounter 8192 charmanders, thus having a 63% chance of getting a shiny one. 3 - We will find (ideally) 19 other shiny pokemon in the process of hunting shiny charmander 4 - If we payday everything that's not shiny, we make about 84k per hour, which is just about 57m for the 680 hours we need 5 - If you do this with friends, of course divide the number of hours for the number of friends, so 4 friends can get a shiny charmander in 5 months with a 63% chance. The end! Finally x) Feel free to provide feedback for this guide, and if I made any mistake (I hope I didn't) don't be afraid to point them out :)

Except the max speed you can get with hp fire is 30 :)

What are the EVs?

Finnn

IGN FireTail

400 tops

69k and i'm feeling generous :P

IGN: FireTail

IGN: FireTail

IGN: FireTail

Shiny tales ;) can't beat that

I thought i'll post a reminder for the pichu EV train here in case you forget it in the box btw ^_^ thanks again!

Great service, will come again :)

POKEMON- Ponyta EV SPREAD- 10 HP, 248 ATK, 252 SPEED DESIRED LEVEL-No level, just EVs MOVES TO KEEP/LEARN- Keep current moveset, don't overwrite ANY OTHER CONDITIONS-None DESIRED COMPLETION TIME- No rush, do it when you're free I'll mail it to you if you say ok. 100k right?