Encountering 1,000 Lapras so you dont have to

[Summrs]

Ive been hunting in the Johto Safari for over 6 months now strictly at the Rocky Beach (channel 4) hoping to one day find and catch a shiny lapras. So far I have only encountered a shiny poliwhirl which sadly fled on the second ball back in November. Today I asked myself, what if I actually find the shiny lapras, will it flee like the poliwhirl?

Below is my data log from attempting to catch every lapras I encounter along with how may lures I have used during this logging process.

These encounters are all on Illuminate and Expert lure only throwing balls.

I also include the lapras I accidentally ran from as well as the ones I could not catch due to running out of balls. They are not included in the percent chance to catch data.

Spoiler

100:

200:

300:

400:

500:

600:

700:

800:

900:

Final Results:

 

Edited April 4 by Summrs

[Summrs]

New record 21 balls used on one Lapras! According to data gathered the odds of going through 21 balls is (((100-23.92-9.27)/100)^20) = .031%

 

 

Highest Total IV Caught

 

Lowest Total IV Caught

 

Most Lapras encounters in a row 5:

 

Wild catch Honorable mention: 

Edited April 1 by Summrs

[Summrs]

So after finishing my 1,000 lapras encounters my data says that you get 3.3 lapras enoucnters per expert lure. So in order to get 27,000 lapras encounters you would need to use about 8,175 expert lures. I would have loved to get the encounter rate data but unfortunately this game still has not added a simple encounter counter. 

 

I was also able to confirm that using only balls that it is about a 28-29% encounter rate to catch lapras. 

 

Below is the formulas I used for my data table incase someone was wondering where I got my calculations from:

 

Spoiler

 

Edited April 4 by Summrs

[DrewIII]

now do 10k

[cloo]

now do 10k

[Summrs]

22 hours ago, DrewIII said:

now do 10k

 

19 hours ago, cloo said:

now do 10k

Id estimate it took me 28-32 hours to do 1k, frick no im recording doing 10k!