Damian

henlo

The shiny warning is a QOL feature, not essential. The devs are probably lumping the fix into an upcoming balance fix for the event, which is what normally happens during events. If you're a normal player who pays attention while playing this is unlikely to affect you. I'm sure if you were running a bot that relied on the check, this would be very annoying, though 🙂

Hi, The probability of succeeding a random event with probability p exactly x times given n trials is given by the following formula: In your case: - n=25000 - p=1/24,300 - x=1 This gives: P(x) = 25000C1 * (1/24300)^1 * (1-1/24300)^(25000-1) Simplifying: P(x) = 25000 * (1/24300) * (0.9999588)^24999 P(x) = (25000/24300) * 0.357 P(x) = 0.3677 Or approximately 37% chance to have found a shiny given the number of trials and conditions you specified (note that this is the chance for exactly one, the chance for at least one is a bit higher than this). I believe your original question was: The chance to succeed on any given trial (p above) does not change if you change the number of trials (n above). You can clearly see that they have different values in the formula, so changing one doesn't influence the other. If however you change the value of n, the value of P(x) will change. That is, as you do more trials, the chance that you succeed once will increase. This is the part most people get confused about - they mix up the chance to succeed on a particular trial (p) with the chance to succeed after some number of trials (P(x)). The incorrect belief that increasing the number of trials influences the chance of success on a particular trial where the events are statistically independent is known as The Gambler's Fallacy. I hope this clarifies.

Theoretically yes; I haven't confirmed this but I would hope that it indicates land/water for Suicune and the birds and just Land for the other two dogs It should be player-dependent; IIRC it updates in the dex when you catch that month's legendary It doesn't belong to a route; players select locations like Five Isle Meadow and Johto route 45 due to the presence of desirable lure shinies which one can passively hunt for while trying to encounter the legendary. The legendary encounter just has a chance to replace a normal encounter. All we know is it's somewhere between 1/1000 and 1/8000. I would expect hordes can only drop 1 orb just like you only get one item via Pickup for hordes. No-one knows the drop rate; you can do some farming and collect some data and if you get enough I'm happy to include it in the guide and credit you 🙂

By way of clarification, I am a software industry professional with a degree in computing and software systems from a world leading university. Patterns of unlikely statistically independent events are exactly what one would expect from a random system. Humans are notoriously bad at distinguishing (effectively) truly random behaviour from patterned or distributed behaviour. For example, consider the following two images: Which image do you think represents a random distribution of dots, and which represents an ordered pattern being generated? The image on the left is randomly generated; the image on the right is not random. Notice that the left image contains clusters of dots together. If we are to imagine that a dot represents a shiny encounter, if the system being used is effectively truly random (i.e. provably psuedorandom by definition), we would expect clusters of shiny encounters close together, and long runs in between shinies, which is what you're describing. If you encountered a shiny exactly every 30,000 encounters, this would not be random at all, in fact it would be extremely ordered. In practice it is effectively impossible for a computer system (which is deterministic by nature) to be truly random, and there is some debate as to whether "true" randomness even exists in the universe. For most applications however, true randomness is unnecessary. It is usually sufficient, as it is in this case, that an attacker cannot analyse the output of a pseudorandom system and determine the input with any accuracy better than a guess. This is the case for the randomness in use in PokeMMO as evidenced by the link provided by Seth above (thanks Seth, I remembered Desu mentioning this but couldn't find it 🙂 ). I'm sorry that you did not encounter a shiny in the amount of time that you expected, and that another player was very lucky and found many in the same day, but this does not demonstrate a "broken" system. As I mentioned, this is exactly what one would expect from a random system, and "pseudorandomness" is not any kind of knock against PokeMMO or its implementation of random monster generation.

Hi, development information about the game such as client/server code is proprietary and the devs will not share it with players. They also don't take new applicants to the development team in general. What is the intention of your question? As the article you link advises, it's effectively impossible to use "true" randomness in most computing applications, and thus secure pseudorandom generators are broadly accepted for use. Even if you knew the pseudorandom number generator method and the seed, it'd still be effectively impossible to use it to predict anything about the game unless you knew every other player's actions as well and could predict them in real-time.

Hi, if you use any autoclicking or macro software on your phone, it may run in the background even when you're not using it. If PokeMMO detects such software, you'll see the message you mention, and if you continue to run PokeMMO with this software, your account may be subject to punishment for prohibited third-party software (botting). I would strongly recommend that you completely uninstall any such autoclicking or macro software if you want to continue playing PokeMMO on this device.

Hello, It is very likely that you are misremembering the username of the account your character belongs to. Remember that the username and the character name are different. If you don't know what your account name would be, please raise a support ticket and staff will help you recover your old account: https://support.pokemmo.com/ Also, remember that you must include an English translation of your messages. It is a requirement of using the forums. _____ Hola, Es muy probable que estés recordando mal el nombre de usuario de la cuenta a la que pertenece tu personaje. Recuerda que el nombre de usuario y el nombre del personaje son diferentes. Si no sabe cuál sería el nombre de su cuenta, envíe un ticket de soporte y el personal lo ayudará a recuperar su cuenta anterior: https://support.pokemmo.com/ Además, recuerda que debes incluir una traducción al inglés de tus mensajes. Es un requisito para utilizar los foros.

Items like higher-tier potions, repels, pokeballs, and TMs are gated behind storyline progression. Some players will pay a premium for better items, either because they donated and sold some RP and are now flush with cash for their story, or because they're running an alt and it's more convenient than logging back into their main. It's not any kind of scam usually.

Hi, this message means that PokeMMO can't connect to the game servers. You should troubleshoot your internet connexion: try switching networks such as from wifi to cellular data via tethering (portable hotspot), disable any VPNs you may be using, etc.

Hi, the game is not officially supported on ChromeOS; as new security features are introduced it's likely that old workarounds to get the Linux version to run on ChromeOS will no longer work. In such situations we would only say that the game isn't compatible with your device. I'd recommend you try common workarounds like replacing your ROMs, disabling any mods, and reinstalling the game. Short of this you would have to do more technical investigations to solve the problem which are beyond what the support team would be able to do for an unsupported OS. You might like to start by investigating the console.log file in the /pokemmo/log folder.

It should be reencountered as shiny,. I hope you're game enough to try it 🙂

Hello, If you believe that a punishment has been applied to you in error you may appeal the decision by raising a ticket at our support portal: https://support.pokemmo.com/support/ Your appeal will be independently reviewed by a staff member unaffiliated with the punishment. However, please ensure that you are familiar with our rules in case the punishment was warranted, because as the message mentions, continuing to violate the rules may result in your account being permanently suspended: https://pokemmo.com/code_of_conduct/

Like shinies, the roll to encounter a dog beast is independent each time. Suppose that for the sake of argument the chance to encounter it is 1/5000 (I don't know if this is true). Every time you start a battle, imagine rolling a 5,000-sided die. If you roll the number 5,000 exactly, you encounter your monthly dog beast. If you roll any other number, it's just a normal encounter. With this understanding, I would ask: If you roll the die 2,400 times in month 1, then in month 2, what's the chance that you roll a 5,000? Even if you rolled 2,400 times, the chance that you roll a 5,000 on a 5,000-sided die is still 1/5,000. So there's no way for the encounters to "accumulate". This is also true for shiny hunting. Doing more encounters does not increase the chance, it just increases the number of trials you've done in an attempt to get the outcome you want. I hope this clarifies.

Why couldn't you make it pop music and science? 😭 I will attend if the time/date is good, but don't plan around me as it's hard to get me with everyone else.

Hello, If you want to appeal a ban you may do so by raising a ticket at our support portal: https://support.pokemmo.com/support/ Please ensure that you log in using the credentials of the affected account. If you have already raised an appeal ticket, please wait patiently for a reply. If you have already appealed and your appeal was rejected, then the decision is final and the ban is irreversible. There is no further line of appeal. Additionally, bans which are more than 6 months old are also irreversible. Unless you have been told otherwise, you may make a new account if you wish to play the game again. _____ 你好， 如果您想对禁令提出上诉，可以通过在我们的支持门户网站上提交请求来进行： https://support.pokemmo.com/support/ 请确保您使用受影响帐户的凭据登录。 如果您已经提出申诉，请耐心等待回复。 如果您已经提出上诉并且您的上诉被拒绝，则该决定是最终决定，并且禁令是不可逆转的。 没有进一步的上诉途径。 此外，超过 6 个月的禁令也是不可撤销的。 除非另有说明，否则如果您想再次玩游戏，可以创建一个新帐户。

Hello, please use the existing thread for suggesting new cosmetic items:

Hello, If you would like to appeal a ban please do so by raising an appeal ticket at our support portal, ensuring that you log in with the credentials of the affected account: https://support.pokemmo.com/support/ Appeals through other channels like forum posts will not be considered. Thank you. _____ 你好， 如果您想对禁令提出上诉，请在我们的支持门户上提出上诉票，并确保您使用受影响帐户的凭据登录： https://support.pokemmo.com/support/ 通过论坛帖子等其他渠道提出的申诉将不予考虑。 谢谢。

你好， 如果您想对禁令提出申诉，请在我们的支持门户上提交支持请求，并确保您使用受影响帐户的凭据登录： https://support.pokemmo.com/support/ 此外，请记住附上您的消息的英文翻译，因为这是使用论坛的要求。 _____ Hello, If you would like to appeal your ban, please submit a support request on our support portal and make sure you are logged in using the credentials of the affected account: https://support.pokemmo.com/support/ Additionally please remember to include an English translation of your messages as it's a requirement of using the forums.

Hello, If you want to appeal a ban please do so by raising a support ticket at our support portal, ensuring that you log in with the affected account's credentials: https://support.pokemmo.com/support/ ______ 你好， 如果您想对禁令提出申诉，请在我们的支持门户上提交支持请求，并确保您使用受影响帐户的凭据登录： https://support.pokemmo.com/support/

The raffle has been drawn and the winner is: ChampLanzus Congratulations! Your prize awaits you in the mail 🙂

Updated for clarity; what I meant was that using Lures doesn't affect the encounter chance. It will obviously increase the rate at which encounters happen. Apologies guys, I was mistaken on this one and it was in fact a bug. It has since been fixed though.

Update; apparently it was in fact bugged and has since been fixed:

Given that the number of encounters required to find them is very high, it'd be difficult to prove whether this is a bug. It's much more likely that you found Suicune disproportionately quickly and thus feel that Raikou should be found just as fast, which is not the case. However, if you do genuinely believe it's a bug (and I would encourage you to do upward of 30k encounters to be certain), you can raise a bug report ticket at our support portal and our bug team will of course look into it: https://support.pokemmo.com/support/

Yes Because I am dumb and can't count lol, fixed