Rock Smashing Data: Sinnoh

[shamorunner]

Ayo folks o7,

I am here to bring you the rock smashing data collected through the RNG fallacy [RNGf] data collection program for the Sinnoh Region. I will include an infographic at the end of the post for those just want to see the compiled numbers. A thank you goes out to our three paid data collectors, esJian, @DannyWith6Ys, and JaggarMeister 

 

There were several routes factoring into this, the most used route was the Turnback Cave route followed by some data from the Celestic Town/Mt Coronet Route, both are gone over in depth on my sinnoh rock smash guide (https://forums.pokemmo.com/index.php?/topic/154772-shamos-sinnoh-rock-smash-guide-and-routes/) for those with questions.

 

With 2,505 rock smashed and 1,210 mons encountered (Graveler, Golem, Spiritomb), the chance of running into a mon in Sinnoh from rock smashing is 48.30%. The expected encoded number by the developers is most likely between a 45-50% rate, leaning towards a 45% encounter rate after comparing to Hoenn's expected encounter rate being 45%. (Rock Smash Data: Hoenn)

 

With the 274 items factored into the 2,505 total encounters, the chance of getting a mon holding an item is 22.64%, resulting in an expected encoded hold rate between 20-25%. Due to differences in Sinnoh(22.64%) and Hoenn(16.79%) hold rates, the regional cross analysis is inconclusive, with the best guess being 20% assuming both regions were coded to have the same rates.

 

After factoring in the encounter rate and the hold rates for Sinnoh, the chance of getting an encounter and said encounter holding an item is 10.9%. After factoring in expecting error, the expected chance sits between 10-15%. After cross analyzing with Hoenn's Data, the expected number is close to 10%.

 

Next comes the numbers without a single bit of a confidence interval: Item Hold Rates. The earnings are lead by skull fossils and followed by a tie for second between armor fossils and the vast quanitity of everstones. Skull fossils can vary decently, between 7k on low days and up to 10-11k when people are shiny hunting craniodos. Armor fossils have more value on average (6-7.5k) compared to everstones (4.9-6.2k), both will change heavily due to shiny hunts and/or event season. The combined odds of a Rock Smash encounter being frisked for an item and holding one of these three items is an 82.11% chance. The extremely rough expected hold rate for items are as follows: Armor Fossil (25%), Skull Fossil (25%), Everstone (35%), Hard Stone (15%)

 

For anyone looking to harvest everstones, Turnback Cave in Sinnoh has a the best RS encounters per hour and the highest everstone hold rate out of Hoenn and Sinnoh that have reached their first confidence interavals and Unova/Kanto who have only reached the halfway point to a confidence interval. From the data collected, Turnback Cave RS has roughly a 100-120 RS mon encounters per hour, reach about 140 encounters per hour between RS mons and single encounters between rocks. As a note, Hoenn and Sinnoh are similar in earnings per hour with Sinnoh having more items to offload to the GTL.

 

If anyone is interested in helping to collect more RS Data for Sinnoh, Hoenn, Kanto, Unova, or Johto, we are still collecting data on rocks smashed, total encounters, and how many of each item. If interested, please message me on discord at shamorunner#6965. We are still paying 50k per hour of Rock Smash Data regardless of region if presented in a specific format.

Edited September 12, 2023 by shamorunner