2022 Goodie Bags Data Collection

[AlePingu]

[EN]

Hello everyone. I would like to make a large data collection about the goodie bags and pumpking goodie bags content, my goal is to be able to make a good empirical calculation of the probabilities of each posible content of the bags, if you want to help me i would appreciate if you answer the post with the number of open bags and the loot. More data means more precision in the empiric probability.

I'll update the probabilities periodically.

 

[ES]

Hola a todos, me gustar[ia hacer una gran colección de datos acerca de las bolsitas de regalo y las bolsitas de regalo del rey, mi objetivo es poder hacer un buen cálculo empírico de las probabilidades de cada posible premio de las bolsitas, si me pueden ayudar agradecería que respondan el post con la cantidad de bolsitas abiertas y el contenido. Más datos significan más precisión en la probabilidad epírica.

 

Actualizare las probabilidades periódicamente.

Update with 301 goodie bags (too few for a consistent result)

 

object	amount	probability
2TM	44	14.62
3 Vitamin	25	8.31
5 Wing vitamin	22	7.31
Rare Candy	22	7.31
2 X CombatObject	18	5.98
3 EXP Candy (S)	15	4.98
3 EXP Candy (XS)	15	4.98
5 Ghost/Dark Gem	14	4.65
3 Hyper Potion	10	3.32
3 Max Potion	10	3.32
10 Premier ball	9	2.99
5 RageCandy Bar	9	2.99
3 Full Heal	8	2.66
10 Heal ball	7	2.33
2 Spell Tag	7	2.33
3 Revive	7	2.33
10 Luxury ball	6	1.99
2 EXP Candy (M)	6	1.99
5 Old Gateau	6	1.99
Black Sludge	6	1.99
10 Repeat ball	5	1.66
10 Timer ball	5	1.66
2 Black Galsses	5	1.66
Superhero Costume	4	1.33
5 Lava Cookie	3	1.00
Bone Club	3	1.00
Hellcat Costume	3	1.00
Ironhero Costume	3	1.00
Hellcat Hood	2	0.66
5 Sweet Heart	1	0.33
Skull Helmet	1	0.33

 

Update with 31 pumpking goodie bags (too few for a consistent result)

 

object	amount	probability
3TM	8	25.81%
3 X CombatObject	4	12.90%
2 EXP Candy (XL)	3	9.68%
Item Magnet Charm (100%)	3	9.68%
3 Spell Tag	2	6.45%
Hyper Vitamin	2	6.45%
15 Luxury ball	1	3.23%
2 Max Revive	1	3.23%
3 Back Glasses	1	3.23%
3 EXP Candy (L)	1	3.23%
3 Goodie Bag	1	3.23%
3 Rare Candy	1	3.23%
4 EXP Candy (S)	1	3.23%
Bones Cap	1	3.23%
EXP Charm (100%)	1	3.23%

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by AlePingu
data update

[awkways]

As of right now my calculations indicate a 100% chance for Pumpking Goodie Bags to have 3x will-o-wisp TMs (1/1), would not recommend opening

[ScizoMonkey]

I got 3 TMs Safeguard in my 5 bags

[awkways]

[SoftCreamyFluff]

Goodie Bags, 1 Super Hero Costume yay

[AlePingu]

Updated with 53 normal goodie bags

[Bestfriends]

I hope this data helps. Clothing from the event were documented in the Vanity Index.

[AlePingu]

I add 101 extra regular bags i consider that less than 1000 bags very few for a calculation. I hope it can collect more data.

[awkways]

Normal goodie bags:



Pumpking bags:

[Xratello]

Oh gosh... I opened like 100 normal bags and i thought it was only me... But the ,crabby' items are takeing over... 

What do we do here? Im Kinda confused rn.. i Sold my Soul for EZ 24h and i only got... Nothing good xDDD

[Utsa]

Bone club so low rate

[Jgaw]

for now, players tend to open bags, because their prices are very low .. but be sure if you don't open now, u ll regret tis later , because bags will rise in prices just after one week when event ends ...
 

[Brimcatcher]

this is from 99 goodie bags. and does anyone know if it's possible to get ultra rares from goodie bags? 

[Goku]

I feel tempted to open like 200 pumpking bags.. anyone have an idea on the odds of ultra rare items? Surely after 200 should at least get a shadow skull lol xD

[AlePingu]

21 hours ago, Brimcatcher said:

this is from 99 goodie bags. and does anyone know if it's possible to get ultra rares from goodie bags? 

I see your first 22 entries are identical to the next 22, it's a mistake rigth? without the first duplicated 22 entries you have 99

[Brimcatcher]

On 11/6/2022 at 11:00 AM, AlePingu said:

I see your first 22 entries are identical to the next 22, it's a mistake rigth? without the first duplicated 22 entries you have 99

yeah I guess it duped it for some reason.