Repeat Ball question: does hatching eggs count as catching a different mon

[ScizorX]

I catch dittos, shiny egg hunt, catch dittos, shiny egg hunt and so on, and no I have not caught any other mon.

 

gen 3~4 calcs give probability of catching an asleep 1hp ditto with a repeat ball as 78%, and gen 5~ calcs give 88%.

 

either way, I've been spending way more repeat balls on catching dittos than expected repeatedly, so basically title says it all.

[Darkshade]

2 hours ago, ScizorX said:

so basically title says it all.

No.

[hamizoss]

7 hours ago, ScizorX said:

I catch dittos, shiny egg hunt, catch dittos, shiny egg hunt and so on, and no I have not caught any other mon.

 

gen 3~4 calcs give probability of catching an asleep 1hp ditto with a repeat ball as 78%, and gen 5~ calcs give 88%.

 

either way, I've been spending way more repeat balls on catching dittos than expected repeatedly, so basically title says it all.

you won't struggle with catching dittos using forretress strat with net balls instead of repeat balls (if you dont know about the strat you can send me a private message here in forums)

 

[ScizorX]

The way I hunt dittos is the following:

 

Smeargle1: False Swipe, Assist

Smeargle2: Spore

(a famous method as you all know)

 

Turn1: Use Assist to call Spore. Ditto is fast asleep for 1 turn.

 

Turn2: False Swipe.

 

Turn3 and so on: If Ditto wakes up, use Assist again. Whenever it's been sleeping for less than 2 turns, use Repeat Balls, and if it's been fast asleep for 2 turns, use Dream Balls.

 

Dream Balls(4x catch rate) on 1hp 2turn asleep dittos guarantee capture, and Repeat Balls(2.5x catch rate) should have 78.4xxx% capture probability in Gen 3~4.

Gen 5 and so on is like 88.2% for 2.5x catch rate.

 

Since I don't know what gen pokemmo uses to calculate capture rates, let's just say the capture probability for Repeat Balls is (1-X).

That is, an asleep 1hp ditto has X probability of escaping a Repeat Ball.

 

Theoretically, it takes on average 2/3+2/3*(X+X^2)/(6-X-X^2) Dream Balls and (2+X)/(6-X-X^2) Repeat Balls to catch one ditto.

If X=0 (Repeat Balls always work), I would be using 2/3 Dream Balls and 1/3 Repeat Balls to catch one ditto since it will depend on the expected turns ditto will be asleep(1turn 1/3 and 2~turns 2/3).

If X=1 (Repeat Balls always fail), I would be using 1 Dream Ball and 3/4 Repeat Balls since only Dream Balls will be able to make the capture.

 

Plug in (1-X)=0.78462 then the expected Dream Balls used is 0.697079, and the expected Repeat Balls used is 0.386074.

If using (1-X)=0.882 then E(D)=0.681654 and E(R)=0.360936.

 

The past month, I've caught dittos daily and totaled 784 up to date. During my hunt, I used 552 Dream Balls and 359 Repeat Balls.

I assume 784 is fairly large enough to make a credible statistical inference.

 

Using Gen3~4 capture probability, the expected numbers are 546.5098 for Dream Balls and 302.6817 for Repeat Balls.

Using Gen5~, it's 534.4171 for Dream Balls and 282.9738 for Repeat Balls.

 

I've used 20% more Repeat Balls than expected. That, I think, is not really on the line of being "unlucky".

So the only conclusion I can reach is that
1. the capture probablity for Repeat Balls is lower than what I expected.
2. it could not have been a "fixed" lower rate: 359 Repeat Balls is more along the line of (1-X) being about 0.55. But then the expected Dream Balls used would have been ~586 >>> 552 which is way more than my experience.
3. and that could only mean my Repeat Ball catch rate was repeatedly reset due to unknown causes.

 

For any disputes,

1. Prior to counting numbers, I had caught 15+ dittos with only Dream Balls, so I started off with full catch rate on Repeat Balls.

2. All I've done is catch dittos, sell dittos with 31 ivs, buy a small amount of male breeders, breed eggs, PvP matches, and nothing else.

3. The calculations were based on the assumption that 1 turn sleep is 1/3 probability, speed tying is 1/2 probability(if ditto transforms).

Edited January 12 by ScizorX

[hamizoss]

10 hours ago, ScizorX said:

The way I hunt dittos is the following:

 

Smeargle1: False Swipe, Assist

Smeargle2: Spore

(a famous method as you all know)

 

Turn1: Use Assist to call Spore. Ditto is fast asleep for 1 turn.

 

Turn2: False Swipe.

 

Turn3 and so on: If Ditto wakes up, use Assist again. Whenever it's been sleeping for less than 2 turns, use Repeat Balls, and if it's been fast asleep for 2 turns, use Dream Balls.

 

Dream Balls(4x catch rate) on 1hp 2turn asleep dittos guarantee capture, and Repeat Balls(2.5x catch rate) should have 78.4xxx% capture probability in Gen 3~4.

Gen 5 and so on is like 88.2% for 2.5x catch rate.

 

Since I don't know what gen pokemmo uses to calculate capture rates, let's just say the capture probability for Repeat Balls is (1-X).

That is, an asleep 1hp ditto has X probability of escaping a Repeat Ball.

 

Theoretically, it takes on average 2/3+2/3*(X+X^2)/(6-X-X^2) Dream Balls and (2+X)/(6-X-X^2) Repeat Balls to catch one ditto.

If X=0 (Repeat Balls always work), I would be using 2/3 Dream Balls and 1/3 Repeat Balls to catch one ditto since it will depend on the expected turns ditto will be asleep(1turn 1/3 and 2~turns 2/3).

If X=1 (Repeat Balls always fail), I would be using 1 Dream Ball and 3/4 Repeat Balls since only Dream Balls will be able to make the capture.

 

Plug in (1-X)=0.78462 then the expected Dream Balls used is 0.697079, and the expected Repeat Balls used is 0.386074.

If using (1-X)=0.882 then E(D)=0.681654 and E(R)=0.360936.

 

The past month, I've caught dittos daily and totaled 784 up to date. During my hunt, I used 552 Dream Balls and 359 Repeat Balls.

I assume 784 is fairly large enough to make a credible statistical inference.

 

Using Gen3~4 capture probability, the expected numbers are 546.5098 for Dream Balls and 302.6817 for Repeat Balls.

Using Gen5~, it's 534.4171 for Dream Balls and 282.9738 for Repeat Balls.

 

I've used 20% more Repeat Balls than expected. That, I think, is not really on the line of being "unlucky".

So the only conclusion I can reach is that
1. the capture probablity for Repeat Balls is lower than what I expected.
2. it could not have been a "fixed" lower rate: 359 Repeat Balls is more along the line of (1-X) being about 0.55. But then the expected Dream Balls used would have been ~586 >>> 552 which is way more than my experience.
3. and that could only mean my Repeat Ball catch rate was repeatedly reset due to unknown causes.

 

For any disputes,

1. Prior to counting numbers, I had caught 15+ dittos with only Dream Balls, so I started off with full catch rate on Repeat Balls.

2. All I've done is catch dittos, sell dittos with 31 ivs, buy a small amount of male breeders, breed eggs, PvP matches, and nothing else.

3. The calculations were based on the assumption that 1 turn sleep is 1/3 probability, speed tying is 1/2 probability(if ditto transforms).

you can use a lvl90-100 Forretress (31 spatk 0 spdef IVs) and Rash Nature & sturdy ability with volt switch move (held item : lagging tail)

and a spore pokemon with high level (breloom or smeargle doesn't matter)

when you meet ditto you use volt switch and as you have lagging tail , ditto goes first using transform , then you hit with volt switch which lets ditto to use sturdy ability and it gets 1 hp left , you send breloom or smeargle and use spore then throw net ball , i tried your strat as well but i felt better with this one , if i think about it its probably 95% or even more is the rate to catch ditto from the first ball if im not wrong

 

Edited January 12 by hamizoss

[ScizorX]

On 1/12/2024 at 7:16 PM, hamizoss said:

you can use a lvl90-100 Forretress (31 spatk 0 spdef IVs) and Rash Nature & sturdy ability with volt switch move (held item : lagging tail)

and a spore pokemon with high level (breloom or smeargle doesn't matter)

when you meet ditto you use volt switch and as you have lagging tail , ditto goes first using transform , then you hit with volt switch which lets ditto to use sturdy ability and it gets 1 hp left , you send breloom or smeargle and use spore then throw net ball , i tried your strat as well but i felt better with this one , if i think about it its probably 95% or even more is the rate to catch ditto from the first ball if im not wrong

 

ty for sharing this. I tried it out and this is a good strat, but personally it's a tiny, tiny bit slower than using assist/fs.

 

Okay, I think I found a very probable cause to the discrepancy I've experienced.

I had assumed speed tie would be 50/50 after ditto transforms and 1turn sleep is 1/3 probability.

Out of 391 recent ditto encounters, 136 dittos had 1turn sleep which is 34.78%(~33.33%) fair enough.

 

But I counted 215 speed tie situations and guess what?

I won 65 of them and lost 150. no where near 50/50.

I think it is due to some dittos holding quick powder maybe?

but according to bulbapedia, quick powder shouldn't apply after ditto transforms...

[Doctor]

1 hour ago, ScizorX said:

ty for sharing this. I tried it out and this is a good strat, but personally it's a tiny, tiny bit slower than using assist/fs.

 

Okay, I think I found a very probable cause to the discrepancy I've experienced.

I had assumed speed tie would be 50/50 after ditto transforms and 1turn sleep is 1/3 probability.

Out of 391 recent ditto encounters, 136 dittos had 1turn sleep which is 34.78%(~33.33%) fair enough.

 

But I counted 215 speed tie situations and guess what?

I won 65 of them and lost 150. no where near 50/50.

I think it is due to some dittos holding quick powder maybe?

but according to bulbapedia, quick powder shouldn't apply after ditto transforms...

It may be slower in terms of animations, but the catch rate with Net Ball is so much higher that you save a LOT of time AND balls using the Forretress strat 

[ScizorX]

1 hour ago, Doctor said:

It may be slower in terms of animations, but the catch rate with Net Ball is so much higher that you save a LOT of time AND balls using the Forretress strat 

fs/spore guarantees capture 2/3 of the time with dream balls. It's with repeat balls I'm having a problem because they're SUPPOSED to be better than status quo.

 

I've tried both methods: forretress strat is like 42.xx dittos per hour while fs/assist is like 43.xx per hour.

Currently, yes forretress strat does save some balls, but fs/assist saves a bit time and is SUPPOSED to save more money too.

[Doctor]

4 hours ago, ScizorX said:

fs/spore guarantees capture 2/3 of the time with dream balls. It's with repeat balls I'm having a problem because they're SUPPOSED to be better than status quo.

 

I've tried both methods: forretress strat is like 42.xx dittos per hour while fs/assist is like 43.xx per hour.

Currently, yes forretress strat does save some balls, but fs/assist saves a bit time and is SUPPOSED to save more money too.

You must be doing something wrong if praying for 2 turn sleeps is faster for you than just volt switch, spore, net ball. 

[ScizorX]

29 minutes ago, Doctor said:

You must be doing something wrong if praying for 2 turn sleeps is faster for you than just volt switch, spore, net ball. 

no, I executed it flawlessly. forretress strat takes similar time because volt switch has hella long combat animation + switch animation.

the point of this thread isn't even about what strat is better, it's about intented mechanics not working properly lol

[CanadaSorry]

Repeat balls used to be the way

 

They are no longer the way (intentionally. They nerfed them)

 

The new way, is the foretress strategy.

 

You might not like this. But this is tha wei

[ScizorX]

Since you guys are preaching the forretress strat, I'll just take Net Balls as an example.

 

The devs had mentioned that only ball rates have been modified in this game, and that the game follows gen3~4 capture mechanics.

 

Capture Probability = ((1048560/SQRT(SQRT(16711680/{(MaxHP*3-CurrentHP*2)/(MaxHP*3)*CatchRate*BallRate*Status})))/65536)^4

 

The original games only use integers, so each part in this calculation used to be round down.(as do all capture probability calculators you'll find)

That gives the probability of Net Ball on an asleep 1hp ditto as 99.9939xx%.

 

Of the last 318 Net Balls I threw using the forretress strat, the dittos escaped 20 times. That is 93.71%.

I assume it was an unlucky roll, but still, it's nowhere near 99.994%.

 

So my hypothesis is that PokeMMO doesn't round the integers. I mean, this is not an 8-bit environment, so I guess that makes sense.

If not rounding down along the calculation, the result is 95.5007xx% which seems more consistent with my sample.

 

This is a big F for Repeat Balls because in the original games, 2.5x catch rate should have been 78.462%, but if not rounding down, it yields 68.215%.

 

So this is basically just a heads up. The game does follow gen3~4 mechanics, but it's not really the same.