Can we get a little more transparency on the Johto Legendary encounter rates?

[SphealTeamSix]

I know it's been mentioned before that the rate is somewhere between 1/1000 and 1/7000 or something along those lines.

 

I've been going left, and right on Route 45 for a couple of days now. I've gone through 400 Expert Lures and mathed out that I get an average of 24 encounters per lure, which can be rounded down a bit since it includes 5x horde encounters and double encounters, but for the sake of argument, let's use that 24/lure.

 

24x400 lures equals out to 9600 encounters, so I'd estimate I'm somewhere near the higher end of that encounter range statistic. Now, maybe I'm unlucky, but this method of hunting isn't particularly fun...If I'm focused on doing these as fast as possible, I can probably get 1000 encounters in somewhere between 60 and 90 minutes. So I've spent probably around 9 or 10 hours exclusively holding down 2 arrow keys and occasionally clicking "Run" in search of Suicune before it resets and becomes Raikou next month.

 

Obviously, I'm in the majority that thinks this encounter rate needs to be tweaked, whatever it is. However, I also think it's important to know for the sake of attaching value to Legendary Lures; 3 of which are worth more than 150 Expert Lures - and it's important to know that encounter rate to understand how much of an improvement 30% actually is. I think that helps players both understand and temper their expectations for purchasing something so expensive.

 

Hope to get some clarification here.

 

Edit because I realized the 30% increase is stated in the Legendary Lure.

Edited November 28, 2023 by SphealTeamSix

[MardukUchiha]

He leído en el chat global que la tasa de aparición es 1/8000 , siguiendo esta tasa la probabilidad de que aparezca Suicune es 0.0125%.
Y recuerda que en estadística existe la regla de los grandes números .

 

PD: edited to delete erroneous information provided by me.

Edited November 28, 2023 by MardukUchiha

[Doctor]

24 minutes ago, MardukUchiha said:

He leído en el chat global que la tasa de aparición es 1/8000 , siguiendo esta tasa la probabilidad de que aparezca Suicune es 0.0125% , si usas un señuelo legendario que aumenta la tasa de aparición en un 30%, esto no quiere decir que ahora la tasa será 30.0125% , no, el aumento real sería 0.00375% , lo que nos da una probabilidad total de 0.01625% (0.0125%+0.00375%) lo que te daría una tasa de 1/6154 .
Y recuerda que en estadística existe la regla de los grandes números .

The chance isn't 1/8000, devs said it's BETWEEN 1/1001 and 1/8000, which means what you exposed here is the worst case scenario. And the legendary lure doesn't boost your chance of finding a legendary by 30%, but rather it boosts your ENCOUNTER CHANCE by 30% if I'm understanding the tooltip correctly, while the boost for the legendary encounter not being mentioned at all.

 

I'm thinking devs don't want to touch the system mainly for two reasons: it's acting as a money sink to reduce inflation since players are wasting a lot of money on expert lures; and they have so much on their plate right now (Anniversary, Christmas, CNY in the upcoming 3 months) that a complete overhaul of the system is really low on their priorities atm

[SnowMoon]

Another point that should be added, the RNG, why there are cases where there are those who get legendary beasts in less time, 20min, 4hr, 1 day, 3 days While for others, it can take up to 2 weeks, or even until the end of the month or the month simply ends and they cannot get the legendary and must wait for the next cycle I will quote the experiences I had searching for each one: Raikou took about 37hrs = 3 days according to the times I connect, I used about 15 expert, super and normal lures, I looked for him on route 48, if I remember correctly, it was in September, then Entei: almost 1 week of searching, 2 route changes, I started on 36, then I went to 48 and finally to 39, the The same amount of decoys, but this time, Scizor at level 100, with swarm in the leader position, in the search for Raikou I also used it, but it was at level 51-53And recently Suicune, I searched for it 2 days before the end of the Halloween event, November 10, I did not use any lure, just Scizor exactly the same as the 2 previous searches3-5hrs of searching nothing more, comparing the time, obviously, Suicune was the fastest. So the factor of luck is also included in this

[silentslade]

Whatever the rates are.

 

This just feels like an absolutely abysmal rate.

It just isn't FUN to do.

And while there are other activities that can be done while doing this.

When you are just hunting the one particular poke, it feels like you are just throwing hours of your life away.

 

I am hoping if they ever release other Legendary pokes in the future.  The way to catch them is more fun and fair than this.

 

[Jgaw]

Free legendary birds

End of the story

[hannahtaylor]

I have yet to get ANY of them

[SphealTeamSix]

I'm just really curious why the encounter rate is such a mystery when most other things are explicitly stated, such as shiny rate.

[Doctor]

9 hours ago, SphealTeamSix said:

I'm just really curious why the encounter rate is such a mystery when most other things are explicitly stated, such as shiny rate.

Funnily enough the shiny rate is also an approximation and not a set-in-stone value 

[BrokenJoker]

10 hours ago, SphealTeamSix said:

I'm just really curious why the encounter rate is such a mystery when most other things are explicitly stated, such as shiny rate.

[blakishark]

tu sais oú télécharger les rom pour les version Android 

[SphealTeamSix]

Alright, clearly I won't find Suicune before the end of the month.

 

This was miserable.

 

450 Expert Lures and 25 Legendary Lures later I still haven't had my encounter. This is incredibly un-fun...I'm basically single encounter shunting while hoping to find something with a rate SOMEWHERE between 0.10% and 0.0125% found in only one region...

 

Worst part is I did some research and found that the mainline encounter rate is somewhere between 1/4096 and 1/8192, and seeing as they significantly REDUCED the shiny rate compared to mainline I think it's safe to assume that if they tweak this rate that it will be in a similar direction.

 

That being said, there are a few solutions that I think could make sense:

1. Have Legendary Lures SIGNIFICANTLY increase encounter rate: I would not be opposed to paying much more for these lures if they came with a lot more steps or increased encounter rate by multiple times what it is now. A 30% increase in encounter rate in the best-case scenario becomes 0.14% for 1/700 or 0.0178% in the worst-case scenario at 1/5600. Let's use my figure of 24 encounters per Legendary Lure, rounded up to 28 encounters since you get 50 more steps...at the 0.14%*28 encounters you'd have a 3.92% chance of encountering your legendary, or roughly 60 Legendary Lures to bring the probability to over 90%...at the 0.0178%*28 encounters you'd have 0.4984% of encountering your legendary, or roughly 470 Legendary Lures to bring the probability to over 90%...come on now...this is an item that costs 70,000 each...and I know RNG is RNG, but hitting odds using these "specially-designed" lures will cost you 42,000,000 PokeYen at the LOW END. Note that this 28 encounter figure is likely much lower since that is based on how many mons my encounter counter listed during the lure duration - including duos and hordes.
2. Enable the Legendaries to be found outside of Johto: I know this kind of defeats the purpose in a way, but I don't WANT to spend all my time in Johto hunting these things every month...I WANT to farm Nincadas in Hoenn to shiny hunt since that's the only region they're in. If I could encounter them doing the things I want to do on a regular basis it would become much less of a grind and more of a pleasant surprise.
3. Allow for Boosted Odds like in the mainline games: To illustrate this point better, I'll attach a snippet I found online. If this was implemented, the hunts would become much more of a concentrated effort than a left-right simulator and could serve a similar purpose as swarm notifications. 

Edited November 30, 2023 by SphealTeamSix

[silentslade]

I think the real problem here is that the Devs aren't respecting player's time at all.

 

The shiny rate is abysmal, sure.  BUT shiny Pokémon are just cosmetics/particles and status symbols. 

There can be some argument for them being abysmal and worse than in the games to make them special. 

I don't LIKE it that way, because it means I will NEVER own a shiny of any mons I want without SEVERE TIME INVESTMENT. or waste of funds to breed an OT.

 

The Legendary Dogs are however something different.

Not only are they TIME LOCKED to one per month.

They have a NEAR IMPOSSIBLE encounter rate.   

This means I spent all of this month after Halloween running left and right on rt 45. and alpha hunting.

SO MANY LURES WASTED

SO MANY HOURS DOING NOTHING.

I missed out on GYM RERUNS

I missed out on PVP

I missed out on Levelling my mons

I missed out on Breeding

I missed out on completing the Johto endgame stuff I wanted to do.

 

And now its day 30, and I see no hope left to get it done this month.

And my next shot is in 2024

 

This blows chunks.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by silentslade

[SphealTeamSix]

26 minutes ago, silentslade said:

I think the real problem here is that the Devs aren't respecting player's time at all.

This is my main issue.

 

I don't know about the rest of the community but I have a full-time job, go to the gym, and have a life outside of the game. Most of what I do on a daily basis revolves around a gym rerun, catching alphas, and shiny checking rare swarms. I don't want to spend all my free time going left and right on routes in a specific region to essentially single encounter shiny hunt something that only appears 4 times a year.

[silentslade]

1 minute ago, SphealTeamSix said:

This is my main issue.

 

I don't know about the rest of the community but I have a full-time job, go to the gym, and have a life outside of the game. Most of what I do on a daily basis revolves around a gym rerun, catching alphas, and shiny checking rare swarms. I don't want to spend all my free time going left and right on routes in a specific region to essentially single encounter shiny hunt something that only appears 4 times a year.

Suicune 2025 maybe

[Johnwaynee]

 

On 11/29/2023 at 12:22 PM, Doctor said:

when most other things are explicitly stated, such as shiny rate

I dont believe it tbh. Playing here for a while - i dont believe the rate of shinys is 1:30k, even if people say that. Years ago Kyu even mentioned that its based on different conditions _such_ as shiny charm or donator that implied there is more to it. Probably different factor that affect legendogs/shinys.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Johnwaynee

[Doctor]

37 minutes ago, Johnwaynee said:

 

I dont believe it tbh. Playing here for a while - i dont believe the rate of shinys is 1:30k, even if people say that. Years ago Kyu even mentioned that its based on different conditions _such_ as shiny charm or donator that implied there is more to it. Probably different factor that affect legendogs/shinys.

Oh yeah, I mentioned a few messages above that it’s an approximation rather than an exact rate, but what I meant is they don’t tell players “it’s between 1/25000 and 1/35000” like they’re doing here.

 

Honestly, I’ve been saying since the very beginning of Johto that this system is absolutely terrible, got called names for it in this forum, so at this point I’m just waiting for a change that I know won’t come :^)

[Zanesc]

Yes! exact knowledge of the rates means players would be able to estimate how long it is likely to take and mentally prepare for it. The range of 1/1k to 1/8k is so wide it barely even has any meaning at all. Personally, 1/1k would be doable for me but 1/8k is just a waste of my damn time.

 

Since the exact rate isn't known, many players with not that much free time are baited into trying just to be frustrated and waste the time hunting these. I was one of these players unfortunately. I'd rather just be told straight up that the rates are like 1/6k so I could have just decided not to even try at all and had spent all that time sunk into nothing but moving left and right into better stuff like touching grass or something.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Zanesc

[SphealTeamSix]

Spent a few more Expert Lures trying to find Suicune, but was unsuccessful.

 

Statistically, I would have hit something around 12,000 encounters, which is a high estimate since I'm basing this off of total encounters including hordes and duos per lure.

 

This month I'm going to track how many encounters it takes me to find my monthly legendary. I will be using Expert Lures almost exclusively and striving for 1,000 encounters per day in the interest of maximizing my time. Let's see how ridiculous this gets...

 

I would assume the staff have seen this post, does anybody care to weigh in on the actual rate, or at least specify why it can't be publicly disclosed? @Rache perhaps?

 

EDIT: Using Gilan's Encounter Counter

Edited December 1, 2023 by SphealTeamSix

[SphealTeamSix]

Ok well...I popped Expert Lures all day during work trying to find Suicune before reset to no avail...

 

But within my first 3 Expert Lures since coming home, quite literally 66 encounters (even less since some were 5x hordes or 2x encounters) and I get my Raikou. I mean I'm thankful that I get to actually enjoy my month now but like...I went somewhere between 10,000 and 12,000 encounters without Suicune, and I found this guy within double digits...

 

What is the rate man...

 

[Doctor]

6 hours ago, SphealTeamSix said:

Spent a few more Expert Lures trying to find Suicune, but was unsuccessful.

 

Statistically, I would have hit something around 12,000 encounters, which is a high estimate since I'm basing this off of total encounters including hordes and duos per lure.

 

This month I'm going to track how many encounters it takes me to find my monthly legendary. I will be using Expert Lures almost exclusively and striving for 1,000 encounters per day in the interest of maximizing my time. Let's see how ridiculous this gets...

 

I would assume the staff have seen this post, does anybody care to weigh in on the actual rate, or at least specify why it can't be publicly disclosed? @Rache perhaps?

 

EDIT: Using Gilan's Encounter Counter

Next time my advice is that you use Archetype, idk about GEC but Archetype lets you keep track of both actual encounters AND battles, which is the real number you want to know (because of the legendary encounter replacing your battle no matter if it was gonna be double enc, horde, etc)

 

But meh, the problem with the odds being such a wide range and low is that it’s basically impossible to narrow it down unless the entire server kept track of it and we could compare the data 😞

[SphealTeamSix]

1 minute ago, Doctor said:

Next time my advice is that you use Archetype, idk about GEC but Archetype lets you keep track of both actual encounters AND battles, which is the real number you want to know (because of the legendary encounter replacing your battle no matter if it was gonna be double enc, horde, etc)

 

But meh, the problem with the odds being such a wide range and low is that it’s basically impossible to narrow it down unless the entire server kept track of it and we could compare the data 😞

Got a link? All I've ever known or heard of was GEC.

[Doctor]

34 minutes ago, SphealTeamSix said:

Got a link? All I've ever known or heard of was GEC.

Sure thing brother, here you go, so far I’ve been liking it a lot and it lets you play and tinker with it freely:

 

 

[Pip3ta]

At this point, is faster to do 4-5 gym runs with that time and then buy it from the gtl than actually catch them. Of course it will not have your OT, but that shows how unbalanced is the ratio vs the price people sell them. 

Edited January 7 by Pip3ta

[Zuladra]

On 11/28/2023 at 2:28 PM, silentslade said:

Whatever the rates are.

 

This just feels like an absolutely abysmal rate.

It just isn't FUN to do.

And while there are other activities that can be done while doing this.

When you are just hunting the one particular poke, it feels like you are just throwing hours of your life away.

 

I am hoping if they ever release other Legendary pokes in the future.  The way to catch them is more fun and fair than this.

 

To date and since the recent release of Legendary Birds, it seems that this mechanic is not about to change. Such a waste.

On 11/30/2023 at 4:53 PM, silentslade said:

I think the real problem here is that the Devs aren't respecting player's time at all.

Anyone who is not interested in shiny hunting experiences this feeling. It makes sense that legendaries are difficult to obtain, but letting RNGesus decides is simply incomprehensible.

There should at least be a pity system for the first encounter which would allow the player to complete the Pokédex and thus reduce this feeling of injustice.

 

Hours wasted running from right to left without progressing a single step are in my opinion the worst gaming experience that can be offered to us.