What is the Suicune encounter rate? My experience

[Rated]

While making my way up to the Ho-Oh fight I ran into a shiny raticate right at the top of the tower. Because of this raticate I decided that since I would reset my encounters anyway, I thought I might as well test the suicune encounter rate. It's been said that suicune's encounter rate increases each time you don't catch it. So I was curious and decided to see if I could observe that increased rate. My thinking was that if I ran into suicune enough times eventually he would have a really high encounter rate which could then be used to find a good catching location or simply test where he can/can't be caught. The following is my experience finding him a total of 11 times (before calling it quits and catching him). 

This is based on the encounters on my main character starting after I beat Ho-Oh, I could have been really lucky or really unlucky with these encounters, I don't know (just like you can go above 30k for a shiny, but also below). I've seen plenty of people say they have been hunting for days for even a single encounters, so who knows.
These encounters are all single encounters, but of course running into the occasional natural horde, or taking a break for a swarm or alpha, so the encounters are pretty accurate but not 100%. If I encountered suicune I would either run or kill it.



The first column is how many times I had seen suicune, the 2nd how many encounters total I was at, and the 3rd how many encounters since I last saw suicune. I then plotted the encounters vs sightings. Interestingly enough, if you look at small portions of the encounters it does look like the encounter rate increases, but when looking at all the encounters together it looks like a pretty straight line, meaning not much of a change in the encounter rate.

Total encounters: 10946
Average encounters: 995
Fastest encounter: 78 ~16 min (based on an estimated 300 single encounters per hr)
Longest encounter: 1893 ~ 6.5 hrs (based on an estimate 300 single encounters per hr)

So the question is: Does suicune encounter rate increase each time you don't catch him? 
Conclusion: I honestly don't know, it's been said that it does but based on my experience there is little to no change.

I know it's just a game so sorry if anyone hates math, but I was pretty curious to how this new feature works so I'm hoping some other people are too. 
I don't know if this is of benefit to anyone, as no one will probably ever need to encounter him more than 2 or 3 times to catch him, but I guess only time will tell.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Rated

[CanadaSorry]

Did you beat the elite 4 as well before encountering it? Or just the ho oh battle?

[MightyMichele]

I haven't managed to catch Suicune yet, but I'm determined to make that happen this weekend. The discussions on forums about Suicune have really enhanced my excitement for this upcoming capture. I've heard that the catch rates are a bit challenging, possibly tougher than 1:1,000, but thankfully they're still much better than the elusive shiny rates of 1:30,000.

[CanadaSorry]

1 hour ago, MightyMichele said:

I haven't managed to catch Suicune yet, but I'm determined to make that happen this weekend. The discussions on forums about Suicune have really enhanced my excitement for this upcoming capture. I've heard that the catch rates are a bit challenging, possibly tougher than 1:1,000, but thankfully they're still much better than the elusive shiny rates of 1:30,000.

So far its taken me a few days....5 or 6 maybe...but i have wife and kids that are insistant on interfering lmao

 

My only concern is that i have ho-oh defeated and not elite 4. My plan is to use suicune with my shinies on elite 4 to hard flex the NPC but i feel like its a fools errand and potentially impossible lol

[IlrenxSBR]

1 hour ago, CanadaSorry said:

So far its taken me a few days....5 or 6 maybe...but i have wife and kids that are insistant on interfering lmao

 

My only concern is that i have ho-oh defeated and not elite 4. My plan is to use suicune with my shinies on elite 4 to hard flex the NPC but i feel like its a fools errand and potentially impossible lol

I got my Suicune before I beat Johto's E4, it took me 2 days (18h spend) to find Suicune, so good luck finding your Suicune

Edited August 23, 2023 by IlrenxSBR

[KaynineXL]

Is this using lures or without?

[Rated]

19 hours ago, KaynineXL said:

Is this using lures or without?

Without

 

 

23 hours ago, CanadaSorry said:

Did you beat the elite 4 as well before encountering it? Or just the ho oh battle?

I started keeping track after Ho-Oh battle, but only started hard searching after red/E4

[Helix]

Interesting, it took me 3,800 encounters without lures until Suicune appeared for me, though I had a few hordes here and there, so I'd say it was more like 3,500 encounters. Also, apparently, the developers have been adjusting the rate of Suicune since Johto launched. And the closes rate we have that are confirmed are somewhere between 1/1001 and 1/7999.

 

[RysPicz]

SRIF

Suicune Rate Is Fair

[Seth]

2 hours ago, RysPicz said:

SRIF

Suicune Rate Is Fair

Indeed. Logged on a few days ago to continue hunt and 2nd encounter was Suicune. SRIF

[KaynineXL]

13 hours ago, Seth said:

Indeed. Logged on a few days ago to continue hunt and 2nd encounter was Suicune. SRIF

Meanwhile I'm on 15k lure encounters with no sight feelsbad.

 

Probs encountered it and ran because I'm noob