Shiny Rate for Hordes

[BoltBlades12]

Ok, I know that the shiny rate in PokeMMO is a ridiculous 1/30k. But I'm curious as to how the hordes work in terms of shiny hunting. Does each individual pokemon have a 1/30k or does the group have a 3,5/30k?

[Gilan]

Each pokemon would have a 1/30k chance.

 

The math for if a Horde as a whole has a shiny in it is:

 

horde of 5 = 1-(29,999/30,000)^5 = .000167 = .0167% (which is coincidentally approximately equivalent to 5/30,000 but the math isn't that simple. If you considered a case where you have a horde of 30,000 pokemon, that fraction doesn't become 30,000/30,000 = 1. So keep that in mind. That's why we have that weird equation I wrote).

 

horde of 3 = 1-(29,999/30,000)^3 = .0001 = .01% (and here 3/30,000 = .0001 = .01%, but similar case as above).

Edited October 23, 2018 by Gilan

[razimove]

7 hours ago, Gilan said:

Each pokemon would have a 1/30k chance.

 

The math for if a Horde as a whole has a shiny in it is:

 

horde of 5 = 1-(29,999/30,000)^5 = .000167 = .0167% (which is coincidentally approximately equivalent to 5/30,000 but the math isn't that simple. If you considered a case where you have a horde of 30,000 pokemon, that fraction doesn't become 30,000/30,000 = 1. So keep that in mind. That's why we have that weird equation I wrote).

 

horde of 3 = 1-(29,999/30,000)^3 = .0001 = .01% (and here 3/30,000 = .0001 = .01%, but similar case as above).

not related, but I just had to comment due to your signature, S.R.I.F.

[RysPicz]

this thread's title was calling my name

Spoiler

SHINY RATE IS FAIR

 

[MaatthewMLG]

1 minute ago, RysPicz said:

this thread's title was calling my name

  Hide contents

SHINY RATE IS FAIR

 

Spoiler

SRIF

 

[BoltBlades12]

On 10/22/2018 at 10:33 PM, Gilan said:

Each pokemon would have a 1/30k chance.

 

The math for if a Horde as a whole has a shiny in it is:

 

horde of 5 = 1-(29,999/30,000)^5 = .000167 = .0167% (which is coincidentally approximately equivalent to 5/30,000 but the math isn't that simple. If you considered a case where you have a horde of 30,000 pokemon, that fraction doesn't become 30,000/30,000 = 1. So keep that in mind. That's why we have that weird equation I wrote).

 

horde of 3 = 1-(29,999/30,000)^3 = .0001 = .01% (and here 3/30,000 = .0001 = .01%, but similar case as above).

So, you're saying that:

 

horde rate of 3 = 1/10,000 shiny chance

horde rate of 5 = 1/6000 shiny chance

 

Of course, being all RNG, even after 10k/6k hordes, I"m not guaranteed a shiny?

[Gilan]

29 minutes ago, BoltBlades12 said:

So, you're saying that:

 

horde rate of 3 = 1/10,000 shiny chance

horde rate of 5 = 1/6000 shiny chance

 

Of course, being all RNG, even after 10k/6k hordes, I"m not guaranteed a shiny?

That would be correct. Getting at least one shiny in hordes of 5, after 6000 hordes is 1-(5999/6000)^6000, which is about 63%.

[FNTCZ]

1 hour ago, Gilan said:

That would be correct. Getting at least one shiny in hordes of 5, after 6000 hordes is 1-(5999/6000)^6000, which is about 63%.

Love me some probabilities

[Goku]

2 hours ago, Gilan said:

That would be correct. Getting at least one shiny in hordes of 5, after 6000 hordes is 1-(5999/6000)^6000, which is about 63%.

This is correct.