
Posts posted by Seth
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4 hours ago, Damian said:
By way of clarification, I am a software industry professional with a degree in computing and software systems from a world leading university.
Patterns of unlikely statistically independent events are exactly what one would expect from a random system. Humans are notoriously bad at distinguishing (effectively) truly random behaviour from patterned or distributed behaviour. For example, consider the following two images:
Which image do you think represents a random distribution of dots, and which represents an ordered pattern being generated?
The image on the left is randomly generated; the image on the right is not random.
Notice that the left image contains clusters of dots together. If we are to imagine that a dot represents a shiny encounter, if the system being used is effectively truly random (i.e. provably psuedorandom by definition), we would expect clusters of shiny encounters close together, and long runs in between shinies, which is what you're describing. If you encountered a shiny exactly every 30,000 encounters, this would not be random at all, in fact it would be extremely ordered.
In practice it is effectively impossible for a computer system (which is deterministic by nature) to be truly random, and there is some debate as to whether "true" randomness even exists in the universe.
For most applications however, true randomness is unnecessary. It is usually sufficient, as it is in this case, that an attacker cannot analyse the output of a pseudorandom system and determine the input with any accuracy better than a guess. This is the case for the randomness in use in PokeMMO as evidenced by the link provided by Seth above (thanks Seth, I remembered Desu mentioning this but couldn't find it 🙂 ).
I'm sorry that you did not encounter a shiny in the amount of time that you expected, and that another player was very lucky and found many in the same day, but this does not demonstrate a "broken" system. As I mentioned, this is exactly what one would expect from a random system, and "pseudorandomness" is not any kind of knock against PokeMMO or its implementation of random monster generation.
Thank you for your input as always, Damian
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2 minutes ago, DOOM said:
We have a life and it is not called pokemmo, we have work, friends, obligations, family, we cannot spend 20 hours a day looking for a legendary bird that with a rock trap will lower half of its life.
Dude, please don't even consider using 20 hours a day to hunt a snowflake chicken nugget. We all have obligations and it's really different how much time we have individually, but just because we have limited time it doesn't necessarily mean that the legendary nugget should be somewhat easy to find.
Be patient and hunt with the time you have. If you don't get it this time, try again when it returns. Good luck. 🙂
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12 hours ago, Syntexqt said:
The truth isnt bullying. Look at all his previous post... and say I'm wrong.
Who said I was forcing? It was a tip from someone who is a native English speaker.. Cheers sweetheart. ❤️ 😀
Telling the truth to undermine a person can in fact be bullying. So yeah, you are wrong.
Sweetheart uwu
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8 minutes ago, Syntexqt said:
99% of your posts are about Kyu, his party hat, and the 11th anniversary... Drop it; you sound insane.
Also, learn when to use capital letters. Not everything is title-case...
No need to bully by calling him insane. I agree it's a bit too much sometimes with the updates and stuff, but we honestly can't force anyone to type in a certain way, unless you are his English teacher - if that so, drop him a grade instead of correcting him on the forums. 🙂 Cheers.
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Great explanations above.
Sometimes I just tell people to imagine a dice with 30,000 sides/options instead of the usual 6-side dice. Each time you get a Pokémon encounter, you roll the 30,000-sided dice and hope to land on the "shiny" number. Your chances do not increase hitting this number no matter how many times you try.
But the chances of getting the "shiny" number in 30,000 attempts is pretty decent. Keep hunting and you will get it eventually. Best of luck. 🙂
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Edited by Seth
2 hours ago, neogeo89 said:so there´s only 1 suicune per character? does not matter if i already captured, there will be just one? right?
Per cycle, yes. Each month is a new cycle where you can get one per character, even if* you already caught Suicune/Entei/Raikou in a previous cycle.
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3 hours ago, Jgaw said:
Live ur life and forget about this
No worth popping a donator status and shiny charms in vain
Only New accounts players are rewarded much shiny rate
If u re an old player just forget about this cursed shiny Shedinja idea (in other hand ignore this and continue ur hunt, good luck )
lol
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Technical question: Type of randomness for shinies.
in General Discussion
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