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Cutoff percentage and Preliminary UU Tier


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Recently all of the Council members came together to discuss the cutoff point that will be used to determine an UU tier as well as a NU tier, when the time is right. We had two options to approach the question: what will the cutoff percentage be? The first option was to choose an arbitrary number, while the second option was to use a formula (the same one Smogon uses).

 

Choosing an arbitrary number is convenient and that’s all it is. Just picking a cutoff percentage based on ‘nothing’ is not justifiable. Not only that but choosing a cutoff percentage after seeing the usage stats also promotes a hell of a lot of bias in decisions. It may also proof problematic when usage changes and the cutoff point does not work anymore, or the same cutoff point does not work for the NU tier, which it should.

 

That’s why we have decided to use the formula of Smogon to define the UU tier, the formula is as follows:

 

C = 1 - (1 - x)^(1/T)

 

Let me clarify what everything stands for.

C = the cutoff point in percentage

T = stands for the average amount of teams a player faces daily

X = the likelihood of seeing a certain Pokémon on a daily basis, also expressed in percentage

 

Smogon would use T=20 and x=0.5 in their calculations. However we discussed and agreed that PokeMMO players simply do not battle 20 times a day on average, so we adjusted this variable to 5. Furthermore, by decreasing the amount of teams you see daily it is only logical to lower the value of ‘x’ too (the likelihood of seeing a certain Pokémon on average. This because the player will see way less Pokémon on average if he battles 5 times a day than that the player would if he battled 20 times a day.

 

From this point we decided to define UU Pokémon as: ‘A Pokémon you see 20% or less a day on average in OU.’

This translates to having T set on 5 and x set on 0.2 for our formula, which ultimately gives us the cutoff point of 4.36%

 

This post will mark the beginning of the first Beta UU tier, which means all Pokémon on or below the usage of 4.36% will now be UU, unless they are banned to BL.

 

What happens now?

Now the UU tier can begin. Pokémon will not be moved down from OU to UU to form ‘balance’, at least not for now. A Pokémon that is deemed to be too strong for the UU tier will be banned to BL by the UU Council.

 

Slaking is already banned to BL by the Tier Council.

 

Reason: Slaking wrecks almost everything in UU.

 

People are also free to make discussion threads about UU Pokémon, of course.

Steelix OP

 

The Council has also decided to reform the UU tier bi-monthly. Meaning that every other month we will look at the OU usage again and move Pokémon up and down based on their new usage in OU (the cutoff point will remain 4.36% unless a better cutoff point is found). We do this because of the instability of OU its usage will be fluctuating quite a bit, making the usage stats we take ‘unreliable’, at times. By reforming the UU tier every other month we stay true to the definition we have given UU Pokémon: A Pokémon you see 20% or less a day on average in OU.’

 

After we have gathered enough usage stats on UU we can start forming the NU tier which will use the same cutoff point and nearly the same definition. We, however, do not know what an estimate on this can be.

 

Thank you for your time and enjoy the new UU tier!

 

Special thanks to ThinkNice for the writeup.

Edited by Darkshade
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Let's have a tournament before we ban anything, I want to see the chaos. 

 

BellyZard, Marowak, Charm Umbreon, CB Machamp, Calm Mind Espeon, and Dual Stab trapping Houndoom...

 

 

First things first we have no reliable Physical Wall that can slow down the majority of the meta. Steelix is pooped on by STAB CB Fight moves (Machamp), eaten alive by STAB Thick Club EQ (Marowak), and burnt to a crisp by STAB Flamethrower (Charizard). Blastoise gets shrecked by these three hitters, less so by Charizard, but even then Thunderpunch is gonna hurt after a boost (DD, Swords Dance, or heaven forbid Belly Drum). 

 

We have no reliable Ghost-type to come in on predicted fighting moves and WoW/Kill physical attackers... Haunter can't stop Charizard or Machamp, but it does do a dandy job against Marowak (Please no Rock Slide bb, thanks). It also gets absolutely shattered by Pursuit Houndoom.

 

Umbreon is going to be a nice addition, but will become set-up bait for those Taunt users and for Charizard. Sub-Marowak poops on it as well. Basically anything that prevents Umbreon from status'ing you in some way is toast.

 

Mawhile? No. Please, no. 

 

Espeon is going to be mean as well as the infamous SubSeed'ing Jumpluff. 

 

Idk guys, I saw imbalance coming from a mile away. We went from a meta designed around defensive stops to a meta revolving around resistances and immunities with correct prediction. It's going to be a game of the best predictions, barring any broken opportunities to set-up (looking at SubSwords Marowak and BellyZard). 

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Looking at the new UU tierlist, look like we will have a more full offense tier than OU when D-nite was around:

 

-Marowak

-Machamp

-Alakazam

-Espeon

-Charizard

 

Pretty all the physical pokemons will sweep through the wall tier, and for the special sweepers, kill the possible umbreon (not really reliable because set up bait for pretty everything) and gg

 

UU tier new meta will have some hard time for the firsts weeks.

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Let's have a tournament before we ban anything, I want to see the chaos. 

 

BellyZard, Marowak, Charm Umbreon, CB Machamp, Calm Mind Espeon, and Dual Stab trapping Houndoom...

 

 

First things first we have no reliable Physical Wall that can slow down the majority of the meta. Steelix is pooped on by STAB CB Fight moves (Machamp), eaten alive by STAB Thick Club EQ (Marowak), and burnt to a crisp by STAB Flamethrower (Charizard). Blastoise gets shrecked by these three hitters, less so by Charizard, but even then Thunderpunch is gonna hurt after a boost (DD, Swords Dance, or heaven forbid Belly Drum). 

 

We have no reliable Ghost-type to come in on predicted fighting moves and WoW/Kill physical attackers... Haunter can't stop Charizard or Machamp, but it does do a dandy job against Marowak (Please no Rock Slide bb, thanks). It also gets absolutely shattered by Pursuit Houndoom.

 

Umbreon is going to be a nice addition, but will become set-up bait for those Taunt users and for Charizard. Sub-Marowak poops on it as well. Basically anything that prevents Umbreon from status'ing you in some way is toast.

 

Mawhile? No. Please, no. 

 

Espeon is going to be mean as well as the infamous SubSeed'ing Jumpluff. 

 

Idk guys, I saw imbalance coming from a mile away. We went from a meta designed around defensive stops to a meta revolving around resistances and immunities with correct prediction. It's going to be a game of the best predictions, barring any broken opportunities to set-up (looking at SubSwords Marowak and BellyZard). 

zard and champ need to go for sure imo. marrow/espy maybe but need to do more calcs. umbreon/doom are fine.

 

for phsyical walls we got blast / gligar / steelix / vileplume (max def eats up fight moves)/ clefable (max def eat up just about everything not fighting type)/umbreon (with charm ofc)/ shuckle / mantine (arguably) / omastar / nidoqueen / aggron (arguably) / scizor (morning sun + bulky arguably) /miltank / hitmontop / torkoal / lunatone / claydol /walrein 

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We had two options to approach the question: what will the cutoff percentage be? The first option was to choose an arbitrary number, while the second option was to use a formula (the same one Smogon uses).

 

I love how you made it seem like the second option is not arbitray.

 

Option one: Choose an arbitrary number X. If a pokemon is used less than X% of the time, it is considered UU.

Option two: Choose arbitrary numbers X and Y. If the probability of seeing a pokemon in Y battles is less than X%, that pokemon is considered UU.

 

If anything, option two is more arbitrary than option one. Then again, there is of course no way of deciding whether or not a pokemon is underused in a non-arbitrary way.

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well yeah but possibly in uu espeon could drop morning sun for sub considering theres nothing like starmie that outspeeds it and forces healing

dont think i'd drop morning sun but it does seem viable

 

doesn't matter, pursuit/bite are phy.

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Morning Sun Scizor actually has a lot of potential for checking Normal spam. It's not weak to EQ like Steelix, packs Superpower to hit Normals hard, and has instant recovery. 

 

If anything, option two is more arbitrary than option one. Then again, there is of course no way of deciding whether or not a pokemon is underused in a non-arbitrary way.

 

We discussed this a lot, and you're right that both are arbitrary. However, we wanted to use a formula that gave us some actual reasoning to decide what constitutes a UU tier. On one hand, we could hand down an order that "Anything seen less than 3% of the time in OU is a UU poke" and on the other we could say "Anything seen less than X% of the time out of Y battles is a UU poke". The first is truly arbitrary, but the second has been tested and makes intuitive sense. 

 

The second also takes control out of our hands: for instance if the TC was somehow corrupt, we could say 5% looks good right now, and then at a later date change it to 2%, drastically altering the meta to suit what we wanted. With a formula, we're giving away most our power to make decisions about the cutoff point to the formula: it would look even sketchier if we were to turn around and present new a new formula at some point in the future.

 

Hopefully this gives a more concrete explanation for why we think the formula idea is less arbitrary and less susceptible to abuse than simply deciding a cutoff point on our own accord.

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zard and champ need to go for sure imo. marrow/espy maybe but need to do more calcs. umbreon/doom are fine.

 

for phsyical walls we got blast / gligar / steelix / vileplume (max def eats up fight moves)/ clefable (max def eat up just about everything not fighting type)/umbreon (with charm ofc)/ shuckle / mantine (arguably) / omastar / nidoqueen / aggron (arguably) / scizor (morning sun + bulky arguably) /miltank / hitmontop / torkoal / lunatone / claydol /walrein 

 

The move to physical punches really, and I mean really puts a damper on a lot of the pokes you have listed. Especially with the majority of these defensive walls having piss poor speed. 

 

Gonna throw some calcs out there using Breloom as a representative Choice Band user that will likely stay and have access to punches. Below is a good estimation of the level of prediction that comes with our new UU tier. 

 

[spoiler]

252 Atk Choice Band Breloom ThunderPunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Blastoise: 92-110 (49.4 - 59.1%) -- 71.9% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Gligar: 180-216 (104.6 - 125.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Steelix: 134-162 (73.6 - 89%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Fire Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Vileplume: 104-124 (57.1 - 68.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 270-320 (133.6 - 158.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Umbreon: 206-246 (101.9 - 121.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Shuckle: 60-72 (47.6 - 57.1%) -- 31.6% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom ThunderPunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mantine: 232-276 (134.8 - 160.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Omastar: 192-228 (108.4 - 128.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Nidoqueen: 102-122 (51.7 - 61.9%) -- 96.9% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Aggron: 292-348 (164.9 - 196.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Fire Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Scizor: 184-220 (103.9 - 124.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Miltank: 216-254 (106.9 - 125.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
-1 252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Hitmontop: 76-91 (48.4 - 57.9%) -- 62.1% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Torkoal: 88-105 (49.7 - 59.3%) -- 73.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Lunatone: 144-171 (81.3 - 96.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Claydol: 90-108 (53.8 - 64.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Walrein: 236-282 (108.7 - 129.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
[/spoiler]
 
There are some good options here (Hitmontop, Torkoal, Shuckle, Claydol), but overall one misplay on your part or one lucky prediction by the aggressor and you're up shit creek. This is just Breloom too. Machamp can replicate these numbers as well. We have some work to do boyos. 
 
I cry every time.
 
 
EDIT: The above also assumes full blown 252/252+ Defensive bulk on all of these walls and just a Jolly Nature on Breloom to keep some speed up. 
 
Edited by DoubleJ
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The move to physical punches really, and I mean really puts a damper on a lot of the pokes you have listed. Especially with the majority of these defensive walls having piss poor speed.

Gonna throw some calcs out there using Breloom as a representative Choice Band user that will likely stay and have access to punches. Below is a good estimation of the level of prediction that comes with our new UU tier.

[spoiler]
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom ThunderPunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Blastoise: 92-110 (49.4 - 59.1%) -- 71.9% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Gligar: 180-216 (104.6 - 125.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Steelix: 134-162 (73.6 - 89%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery


252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Fire Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Vileplume: 104-124 (57.1 - 68.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 270-320 (133.6 - 158.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Umbreon: 206-246 (101.9 - 121.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Shuckle: 60-72 (47.6 - 57.1%) -- 31.6% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom ThunderPunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mantine: 232-276 (134.8 - 160.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Omastar: 192-228 (108.4 - 128.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Nidoqueen: 102-122 (51.7 - 61.9%) -- 96.9% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Aggron: 292-348 (164.9 - 196.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO


252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Fire Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Scizor: 184-220 (103.9 - 124.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Miltank: 216-254 (106.9 - 125.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO



-1 252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Hitmontop: 76-91 (48.4 - 57.9%) -- 62.1% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Torkoal: 88-105 (49.7 - 59.3%) -- 73.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Lunatone: 144-171 (81.3 - 96.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Claydol: 90-108 (53.8 - 64.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery



252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Walrein: 236-282 (108.7 - 129.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO

[/spoiler]



There are some good options here (Hitmontop, Torkoal, Shuckle, Claydol), but overall one misplay on your part or one lucky prediction by the aggressor and you're up shit creek. This is just Breloom too. Machamp can replicate these numbers as well. We have some work to do boyos.

I cry every time.


EDIT: The above also assumes full blown 252/252+ Defensive bulk on all of these walls and just a Jolly Nature on Breloom to keep some speed up.

I dont think it can learn ice/fire punch.
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zard and champ need to go for sure imo. marrow/espy maybe but need to do more calcs. umbreon/doom are fine.

 

for phsyical walls we got blast / gligar / steelix / vileplume (max def eats up fight moves)/ clefable (max def eat up just about everything not fighting type)/umbreon (with charm ofc)/ shuckle / mantine (arguably) / omastar / nidoqueen / aggron (arguably) / scizor (morning sun + bulky arguably) /miltank / hitmontop / torkoal / lunatone / claydol /walrein 

Imo Donphan is missing, with 90 base hp/120 base def. Also 120 base atk hurts, even without invest. Acces to spin, roar + knock off makes it a big deal imo.

 

 

The move to physical punches really, and I mean really puts a damper on a lot of the pokes you have listed. Especially with the majority of these defensive walls having piss poor speed. 

 

Gonna throw some calcs out there using Breloom as a representative Choice Band user that will likely stay and have access to punches. Below is a good estimation of the level of prediction that comes with our new UU tier. 

 

[spoiler]

252 Atk Choice Band Breloom ThunderPunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Blastoise: 92-110 (49.4 - 59.1%) -- 71.9% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Gligar: 180-216 (104.6 - 125.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Steelix: 134-162 (73.6 - 89%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Fire Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Vileplume: 104-124 (57.1 - 68.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 270-320 (133.6 - 158.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Umbreon: 206-246 (101.9 - 121.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Shuckle: 60-72 (47.6 - 57.1%) -- 31.6% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom ThunderPunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mantine: 232-276 (134.8 - 160.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Omastar: 192-228 (108.4 - 128.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Nidoqueen: 102-122 (51.7 - 61.9%) -- 96.9% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Aggron: 292-348 (164.9 - 196.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Fire Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Scizor: 184-220 (103.9 - 124.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Miltank: 216-254 (106.9 - 125.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
 
-1 252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Hitmontop: 76-91 (48.4 - 57.9%) -- 62.1% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Torkoal: 88-105 (49.7 - 59.3%) -- 73.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Lunatone: 144-171 (81.3 - 96.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Claydol: 90-108 (53.8 - 64.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
 
252 Atk Choice Band Breloom Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Walrein: 236-282 (108.7 - 129.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
[/spoiler]
 
There are some good options here (Hitmontop, Torkoal, Shuckle, Claydol), but overall one misplay on your part or one lucky prediction by the aggressor and you're up shit creek. This is just Breloom too. Machamp can replicate these numbers as well. We have some work to do boyos. 
 
I cry every time.
 
 
EDIT: The above also assumes full blown 252/252+ Defensive bulk on all of these walls and just a Jolly Nature on Breloom to keep some speed up. 
 

 

 

Uhm, afaik it only can learn Thunderpunch.

Ninja'd

Edited by semjon
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I dont think it can learn ice/fire punch.

 

My b, Showdown calc let's me have too much free power. Substitute Breloom for Machamp in every line written above. 

 

Pokes with decent Attack and Speed with access to Punches and a reliable stab include:

 

Machamp

Hitmonchan

Kangaskhan

Miltank

Hariyama

Zangoose

Aggron

Granbull

 

 

Soooo kind of scary. 

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