Zymogen Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Just now, kevola said: Yeah, it's really counter intuitive. Idk why I brought it up quack Link to comment
Rigamorty Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Just now, kevola said: Yeah, it's really counter intuitive. Idk why I brought it up I hate it because when ever i think about it with 3 doors its still just 50/50 in my mind Just now, gbwead said: I always pretended I understood the solution, but in reality I think it's bullshit. the point is if you upscale the problem to say 100 doors, you pick a door, then they remove 98 incorrect doors, obviously you switch doors because the odds go from 1/100 to 99/100 Link to comment
kevola Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Just now, gbwead said: I always pretended I understood the solution, but in reality I think it's bullshit. You can go on deal or no deal and beat the banker when you understand it If you run a simulation for it, the probability will most likely get closer and closer to 66.67% if you switch gbwead 1 Link to comment
XPLOZ Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Alright here is a little lesson because today is one of my good days : The intersection of two events is when you can say Event1 AND Event2 (it is used here to represent the turns one after the other) Let's call P a function which gives the probability (takes values between 0 and 1) 2 events A and B are independant is equivalent to : P(Event1 intersection Event2) = P(Event1) x P(Event2) The union of two events is when you can say Event1 OR Event2 (Inclusive OR) It's always true that : P(Event1 union Event2) = P(Event1) + P(Event2) - P(Event 1 intersection Event2) If the events are disjoint, then you can only keep the addition because P(Event 1 intersection Event2) = 0 This explains the calculation of lord gbweak Don't thank me tho Arimanius, DoubleJ, Fipp and 3 others 6 Link to comment
Oltan Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 1 minute ago, XPLOZ said: Alright here is a little lesson because today is one of my good days : The intersection of two events is when you can say Event1 AND Event2 (it is used here to represent the turns one after the other) Let's call P a function which gives the probability (takes values between 0 and 1) 2 events A and B are independant is equivalent to : P(Event1 intersection Event2) = P(Event1) x P(Event2) The union of two events is when you can say Event1 OR Event2 (Inclusive OR) It's always true that : P(Event1 union Event2) = P(Event1) + P(Event2) - P(Event 1 intersection Event2) If the events are disjoint, then you can only keep the addition because P(Event 1 intersection Event2) = 0 This explains the calculation of lord gbweak Don't thank me tho TY XPLOZ Link to comment
gbwead Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Just now, kevola said: You can go on deal or no deal and beat the banker when you understand it If you run a simulation for it, the probability will most likely get closer and closer to 66.67% if you switch Ya, I know, but still don't get it. I feel it goes agaisnt the independance law XPLOZ just talked about. Link to comment
KaynineXL Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, kevola said: You can go on deal or no deal and beat the banker when you understand it If you run a simulation for it, the probability will most likely get closer and closer to 66.67% if you switch deal or no deal was the shit DoubleJ and kevola 2 Link to comment
Kamimiii Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 (edited) worst week PSL has ever witnessed Edited August 4, 2017 by Kamimiii i have a headache BlackJovi and JIceJDragon 2 Link to comment
gbwead Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Kamimiii said: worst week PSL has ever witnessed weak Kamimiii and DoubleJ 2 Link to comment
Kamimiii Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, gbwead said: weak Fight me IRL, 18th of August, Paris, you can bring your bros Schuchty and XPLOZ, I take you 1v3. gbwead 1 Link to comment
Bilburt Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rigamorty said: it's like 11.5% it's just safe to assume the entirety of that 11.5% of the population are living in jaja land. you like paynis bro? Link to comment
kevola Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, XPLOZ said: Alright here is a little lesson because today is one of my good days : The intersection of two events is when you can say Event1 AND Event2 (it is used here to represent the turns one after the other) Let's call P a function which gives the probability (takes values between 0 and 1) 2 events A and B are independant is equivalent to : P(Event1 intersection Event2) = P(Event1) x P(Event2) The union of two events is when you can say Event1 OR Event2 (Inclusive OR) It's always true that : P(Event1 union Event2) = P(Event1) + P(Event2) - P(Event 1 intersection Event2) If the events are disjoint, then you can only keep the addition because P(Event 1 intersection Event2) = 0 This explains the calculation of lord gbweak Don't thank me tho Yeah, I get that, but I still don't understand how Gb did it. It's coming up to 2am here so maybe I should just look at it in the morning, I'm probably just being silly Link to comment
Rigamorty Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Kamimiii said: 18th of August gbwead getting beaten up is the greatest birthday present i could ever ask for Link to comment
Kamimiii Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Rigamorty said: gbwead getting beaten up is the greatest birthday present i could ever ask for It'll cost you one sealeo shiny for the Knock Out formula Inb4 we both get banned for RMT c u Edited August 4, 2017 by Kamimiii gbwead 1 Link to comment
kevola Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, gbwead said: Ya, I know, but still don't get it. I feel it goes agaisnt the independance law XPLOZ just talked about. You can't apply the same law (Independence) I think, as it's conditional probability gbwead 1 Link to comment
Moetal Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 (edited) Did we just went through 7 pages of Nik vs Kimi debates? Edited August 4, 2017 by Moetal JIceJDragon 1 Link to comment
gbwead Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, kevola said: Yeah, I get that, but I still don't understand how Gb did it. It's coming up to 2am here so maybe I should just look at it in the morning, I'm probably just being silly =(1/16)+((1-(1/16))*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^2)*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^3)*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^4)*(1/16)) Chance to crit on the first try: (1/16) Chance to crit on the second try: + ((1-(1/16))*(1/16)) Chance to crit on the third try: + (((1-(1/16))^2)*(1/16)) Chance to crit on the fourth try: + (((1-(1/16))^3)*(1/16)) Chance to crit on the fifth try: + (((1-(1/16))^4)*(1/16)) Since the chance to crit on the second try only matters if you don't crit on the first try, you need to take it into account when you calc the chance to crit on the second try. Same logic applies for the third, fourth and fifth tries. I hope that makes sense. 4 minutes ago, kevola said: You can't apply the same law (Independence) I think, as it's conditional probability XPLOZ just explained that to me. I get it now thanks. kevola 1 Link to comment
Rigamorty Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Moetal said: Did we just went through 7 pages of Nik vs Kimi debates? no we've moved past that and now we're discussing mathematics. i'm certain that at this rate we'll have founded a new religion by page 20 and then reached the moon at page 23. Link to comment
Bilburt Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 is this a good time to tell you guys I failed math? Link to comment
gbwead Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Rigamorty said: no we've moved past that and now we're discussing mathematics. i'm certain that at this rate we'll have founded a new religion by page 20 and then reached the moon at page 23. I ain't dragging Eric to the moon. No one can carry that trashboi. Edit: Inb4 Eric tries to fold a piece of paper on itself 42 times in order to reach the moon... Edited August 4, 2017 by gbwead Link to comment
Toast Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 im asian and i can say youre all wrong JIceJDragon, Suneet and Oltan 3 Link to comment
Oltan Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Toast said: im asian and i can say youre all wrong Suneet, JIceJDragon and Toast 3 Link to comment
Moetal Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, Toast said: im asian and i can say youre all wrong What type of Asian? Some are smarter than others Link to comment
Aerun Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Just now, Moetal said: What type of Asian? Some are smarter than others That's true, @Fujimura and @benjaminvoz are the worst of them Draekyn, Toast, SweeTforU and 2 others 5 Link to comment
Toast Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Moetal said: What type of Asian? Some are smarter than others the alpha one SirDusty, gbwead and JIceJDragon 3 Link to comment
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