[PSL 8] Week Seven

[DoctorPBC]

4 minutes ago, BlackJovi said:

@Rigamorty for host next season. 

 

[kevola]

35 minutes ago, BurntZebra said:

I understand my decision may have not been popular, but I still believe it was still fair to both individuals. At the time of the server shutdown, the odds were roughly 75% in favor of NikhilR and 25% in Kimikozen (roughly 4 chances to get a crit on clefable) (actually in the recreated replay, Kimikozen had 5 chances to get a crit, boosting his odds to 31.25%). The recreated replay kept these odds fairly decently, potentially skewed against kimi slightly since raikou may have had 1 extra chance to get a crit, but a crit from raikou would have only mattered if raikou got back to back crits on clefable, which is a low .39% chance

 

That's not how probability works 

[gbwead]

7 minutes ago, BlackJovi said:

@Rigamorty for host next season. 

Oh fuck no.

#1, he's a trashboi, that's not elite enough for hosting psl or managing a team.

#2, psl season 6 is rolling over in it's grave.

#3, he wouldn't choose me as a manager unless I cuddle with him, so he's biased af.

Edited August 3, 2017 by gbwead

[NikhilR]

Just now, DestructX said:

That or a rematch was the only overall approach to a neutral decision. Just because Kimi wanted it doesn't exactly mean zebra would be taking his side if he made that call

It's not about Zebra taking sides. That was never my issue. Whatever decision was going to be made was always going to favor one player over the other because of the situation. It's something that needs to be accepted. I would 100% agree to a rematch with different teams if I dc'd. But I didn't and so I don't see why I should be punished for a win that I could have gotten given the odds. 

[gbwead]

Btw, did Kimi agree that without a crit he could not win?

Edited August 3, 2017 by gbwead

[kevola]

2 minutes ago, gbwead said:

Btw, did Kimi agree that without a crit he could not win or is he contesting that?

I don't think he ever denied it. I think his problem was with the competitive aspect of the decision

Edited August 3, 2017 by kevola

[gbwead]

Just now, kevola said:

I don't think he ever denied it. I think his problem was on the competitive aspect of the decision

If he doesn't deny it, Zebra was right to assume what Kimi's odds of winning were and therefore Riga's argument about not being able to determine anything with certainty gets disassembled.

[kevola]

Just now, gbwead said:

If he doesn't deny it, Zebra was right to assume what Kimi's odds of winning were and therefore Riga's argument about not being able to determine anything with certainty gets disassembled.

I'm just saying Zebra's maths was wrong

[BlackJovi]

And jj still lf attention rip 

[DoubleJ]

1 minute ago, BlackJovi said:

And jj still lf attention rip 

Oh is that what I was doing? Can you explain yourself then?

[BurntZebra]

1 minute ago, kevola said:

I'm just saying Zebra's maths was wrong

What are the correct maths? I assumed given that there were 5 hits and each hit has a 1/16 chance, it would roughly come out to be 5/16 since each turn is independent of the previous one (well besides the fact that a crit on turn 3 would mean that the 4th and 5th hit never happen). 

[gbwead]

Just now, BurntZebra said:

I assumed given that there were 5 hits and each hit has a 1/16 chance, it would roughly come out to be 5/16 since each turn

Dude, really?

[DoubleJ]

1 minute ago, BurntZebra said:

What are the correct maths? I assumed given that there were 5 hits and each hit has a 1/16 chance, it would roughly come out to be 5/16 since each turn is independent of the previous one (well besides the fact that a crit on turn 3 would mean that the 4th and 5th hit never happen). 

Odds aren't additive

[gbwead]

gonna write a letter to tyrone to get zebra kicked out of TC

[BurntZebra]

Just now, DoubleJ said:

Odds aren't additive

In theory, maybe not, but in practice, they generally are. If you hit 1000 times, the odds of a critical hit will approach 100% (just really close to 100, like 99.99999). 

[Bilburt]

zebra stick to hosting and leave math to others ty

[kevola]

2 minutes ago, BurntZebra said:

What are the correct maths? I assumed given that there were 5 hits and each hit has a 1/16 chance, it would roughly come out to be 5/16 since each turn is independent of the previous one (well besides the fact that a crit on turn 3 would mean that the 4th and 5th hit never happen). 

You can't do it that way because if there are 20 hits for example, then there's a 125% of a crit happening, and that's just wrong

[KaynineXL]

1 minute ago, gbwead said:

gonna write a letter to tyrone to get zebra kicked out of TC

nah, u should leave and then we could make our own council?

[DoubleJ]

5 minutes ago, gbwead said:

gonna write a letter to tyrone to get zebra kicked out of TC

@Tyrone

 

 

[gbwead]

=(1/16)+((1-(1/16))*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^2)*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^3)*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^4)*(1/16))= 27.6%

=5/16 = 31.3%

 

Did that fast, but can someone confirm that this is the right calc?

[Mkns1070]

Just now, gbwead said:

=(1/16)+((1-(1/16))*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^2)*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^3)*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^4)*(1/16))= 27.6%

=5/16 = 31.3%

 

Did that fast, but can someone confirm that this is the right calc?

right, trust me

[Toast]

1 minute ago, gbwead said:

=(1/16)+((1-(1/16))*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^2)*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^3)*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^4)*(1/16))= 27.6%

=5/16 = 31.3%

 

Did that fast, but can someone confirm that this is the right calc?

yes im asian so its true

[Laz]

[kevola]

1 minute ago, gbwead said:

=(1/16)+((1-(1/16))*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^2)*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^3)*(1/16))+(((1-(1/16))^4)*(1/16))= 27.6%

=5/16 = 31.3%

 

Did that fast, but can someone confirm that this is the right calc?

Got the same answer, slightly different method though

[gbwead]

Would Kimi win 100% if he gets a crit tho?