Basically it's just variance. Check out Seth's shiny guide:

You can see in the "more nerdiness about shiny hunting" the stats breakdown of expected chance to succeed given some number of trials using binomial distribution. Basically with donator you would expect not to hit a shiny after 60k encs approximately 11% of the time. Unfortunately that's just how it works, sometimes you hit 3 shinies in 24 hours and sometimes you phase for months. Just gotta keep rolling.

 

11 hours ago, Johnwaynee said:

literally unplayable

 

 

But I think for english language you have something called "proper nouns". But it's not my native language so i dont know if it can be applied here

Hi, thanks for participating in the discussion.

 

Proper nouns in English refer to names given to unique/distinct entities/places/things. For example, "Damian", "Sydney Opera House", and "Ayers Rock" are all proper nouns. In this case, the item in question is generic, since there can be many of them and they are interchangeable with one another. Hence, the name does not constitute a proper noun.

 

However, even if this item did have a proper name, even proper nouns typically follow this order as well - "Sydney Opera House" has the place ("Sydney" being an origin/place and thus category 7) come before the purpose ("Opera", as in a house for opera, category 10).

 

I hope this clarifies and you'll support my campaign to correct the name of this item.

One of the available Lost Present items is called "Lost Big Present":

 

 

 

However, in English, adjectives must follow the order: opinion-size-quality-shape-age-colour-origin-material-type-purpose (ref. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/grammar/british-grammar/adjectives-order ). In this context, "Lost" is an origin adjective (category 7), but "Big" is a size adjective (category 2), thus "Big" should precede "Lost" and therefore the correct name ought to be "Big Lost Present". The current name scans jarringly to native English speakers.

 

I hope the developers will consider my extremely important request to fix this clearly broken item name and wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year :^)

 

There's two main classes of changes to the game: features and bug fixes.

 

If the devs communicated what features they were working on, players would be excited and want them released, so they'd be pestered about timelines. Devs could give estimates but then players would be annoyed when those estimates get pushed out (software dev always takes longer than you think it will). So communicating about features usually leads to frustration from players. The devs got a lot of messages back when they used to post blogs about what was being worked on.

 

The other class of change, bug fixes, would actively tip off players about ways to break or exploit the game, so it's obviously not a good choice to communicate them widely.

 

So it's not clear to me what you'd want them to do. Communicate about things that change often and thus disappoint the players and attract angry messages? This is the main reason why they're fairly quiet. It also enables them to focus on the real work, ie development, and not the make-work, ie communications and admin.

Hi, it's less that it was removed and more that it was never added. Sinnoh was released with features likc pickup, underground, battle frontier, etc. not implemented so that players could play in the region, which was the main demand. They probably just haven't gotten around to adding Pickup to Sinnoh yet due to other priorities.

 

Hope this clarifies.

1 minute ago, justme1306 said:

 i want someone to look into it

If your appeal was reviewed, what I'm telling you is that someone _did_ look into it, and the decision that you were botting was upheld.

 

Shortly this thread will be locked by the staff, so again my advice is to just move on. If you've had your appeal, you don't get other chances. Even if you succeed in convincing me or others in the community, it won't change the outcome.

3 minutes ago, Wolfgangerl said:

But if what he's saying is true, why he got banned for that?

When I'm doing repetitive farming i watch or listen to youtube 

I don't want to get banned for that, even my friends do it on pc or their phones as you can divide the screen.

 

I really hope a Dev can clarify this

 

If you are not botting then you don't have anything to worry about. Staff don't ban people for grinding. Many players say they weren't cheating because they think it'll help them get their account back, even when the evidence against them is irrefutable. It's not usually shared with players or publically because it would help cheaters circumvent the capture methods that the staff employ. However as I mentioned, each appeal is independently reviewed for correctness so there can be little doubt.

 

1 minute ago, justme1306 said:

thats why im fighting for justice i never cheated - i played 3k hours and put dedication into my accounts - and get banned for no reason except farming ditto for events coming - is it the payday the issue? i dont know but im not using 3rd party

If your appeal is rejected then the investigation has concluded that the evidence supporting your ban for the stated reason is irrefutable. It's not me or even the community you need to appeal to, so posting here isn't going to change anything. I suggest you accept this outcome and move on.

1 minute ago, justme1306 said:

 give me a chance to talk to someone

The appeal process is your chance; the evidence collected against you will be independently reviewed and verified. Many players object publically in the way you have, but this doesn't change the outcome. If your appeal has been rejected, you should probably just start a new account if you want to keep playing.

Hi, you're correct that Belly Drum has no effect on Snore but in the past it would have done.

 

In Generation 4, the Physical/Special split was introduced to the mainline games. This made most ranged attacks Special attacks (whose damage is affected by the SpAtk stat), and most melee attacks into Physical attacks (whose damage is determined by Attack).

Prior to this change, whether a move was Physical or Special was determined by its type. In Gen 3 and earlier, all Normal type moves (such as Snore) were physical and would thus be affected by buffs to Attack like from Belly Drum. This also meant moves like Fire Punch counted as Special attacks.

However, after the change, whether a move is affected by Atk or SpAtk was determined by whether it's a melee or ranged attack. Since Snore is a ranged attack, it became Special in gen 4, and its damage is now calculated based on the user's SpAtk.

 

Since PokeMMO uses the most recent mechanics it can, it incorporates this change, and thus in PokeMMO, Snore will be unaffected by the buff from Belly Drum. Other physical Normal-type attacks such as Body Slam will still be buffed by Belly Drum's Atk boost.

 

I hope this clarifies the situation for you 🙂

Hi, if your appeal ticket is rejected then the decision is final and the ban won't be lifted. There's no way to appeal again. Unless you have been told otherwise, if you want to keep playing, you can make a new account. However, you should be careful not to repeat your mistakes as the punishment may be even more severe next time.

henlo

The shiny warning is a QOL feature, not essential. The devs are probably lumping the fix into an upcoming balance fix for the event, which is what normally happens during events. If you're a normal player who pays attention while playing this is unlikely to affect you. I'm sure if you were running a bot that relied on the check, this would be very annoying, though 🙂

Hi,

 

The probability of succeeding a random event with probability p exactly x times given n trials is given by the following formula:

 

In your case:

- n=25000

- p=1/24,300

- x=1

 

This gives:

P(x) = 25000C1 * (1/24300)^1 * (1-1/24300)^(25000-1)

 

Simplifying:

P(x) = 25000 * (1/24300) * (0.9999588)^24999

P(x) = (25000/24300) * 0.357

P(x) = 0.3677

 

Or approximately 37% chance to have found a shiny given the number of trials and conditions you specified (note that this is the chance for exactly one, the chance for at least one is a bit higher than this).

 

I believe your original question was:

16 hours ago, Bytefixer said:

What I understand is the more I roll, the higher the chance is. Can someone confirm this? Really appreciate it.

 

The chance to succeed on any given trial (p above) does not change if you change the number of trials (n above). You can clearly see that they have different values in the formula, so changing one doesn't influence the other.

 

If however you change the value of n, the value of P(x) will change. That is, as you do more trials, the chance that you succeed once will increase. This is the part most people get confused about - they mix up the chance to succeed on a particular trial (p) with the chance to succeed after some number of trials (P(x)). The incorrect belief that increasing the number of trials influences the chance of success on a particular trial where the events are statistically independent is known as The Gambler's Fallacy.

 

I hope this clarifies.

On 1/3/2024 at 4:12 AM, Raichuforyou said:

1. If the dex specifies that the bird/dog is currently only catchable on land, it's absolutely a waste to go hunting on sea at that moment, correct?

Theoretically yes; I haven't confirmed this but I would hope that it indicates land/water for Suicune and the birds and just Land for the other two dogs

 

On 1/3/2024 at 4:12 AM, Raichuforyou said:

2. When does that dex information (if it's roaming land or sea) change? Is the information as to where the beast is roaming consistent for any player, or is this player/client dependent?

It should be player-dependent; IIRC it updates in the dex when you catch that month's legendary

On 1/3/2024 at 4:12 AM, Raichuforyou said:

3. Are there some suspicions that the legendary beast is actually roaming on a specific route at specific times? I've seen catching parties notably in Kanto on Island 5 trying to catch the birds.

It doesn't belong to a route; players select locations like Five Isle Meadow and Johto route 45 due to the presence of desirable lure shinies which one can passively hunt for while trying to encounter the legendary. The legendary encounter just has a chance to replace a normal encounter.

On 1/3/2024 at 4:12 AM, Raichuforyou said:

4. What are some players thinking the encounter rate for the birds is at the moment?

All we know is it's somewhere between 1/1000 and 1/8000.

 

On 1/4/2024 at 5:49 AM, Sindago said:

Do you have the chance to get an orb for every wild pokemon defeated or only once per battle? I.e. hordes can drop multiple orbs?

 

Another question, are we able to know the drop rate of elem. orbs?

I would expect hordes can only drop 1 orb just like you only get one item via Pickup for hordes. No-one knows the drop rate; you can do some farming and collect some data and if you get enough I'm happy to include it in the guide and credit you 🙂

3 hours ago, KiritoHakz said:

Just test it you will see catching five shinys the same day its impossible with real random. There is no problem here.

By way of clarification, I am a software industry professional with a degree in computing and software systems from a world leading university.

 

Patterns of unlikely statistically independent events are exactly what one would expect from a random system. Humans are notoriously bad at distinguishing (effectively) truly random behaviour from patterned or distributed behaviour.  For example, consider the following two images:

 

Which image do you think represents a random distribution of dots, and which represents an ordered pattern being generated?

 

The image on the left is randomly generated; the image on the right is not random.

Notice that the left image contains clusters of dots together. If we are to imagine that a dot represents a shiny encounter, if the system being used is effectively truly random (i.e. provably psuedorandom by definition), we would expect clusters of shiny encounters close together, and long runs in between shinies, which is what you're describing. If you encountered a shiny exactly every 30,000 encounters, this would not be random at all, in fact it would be extremely ordered.

 

In practice it is effectively impossible for a computer system (which is deterministic by nature) to be truly random, and there is some debate as to whether "true" randomness even exists in the universe.

For most applications however, true randomness is unnecessary. It is usually sufficient, as it is in this case, that an attacker cannot analyse the output of a pseudorandom system and determine the input with any accuracy better than a guess. This is the case for the randomness in use in PokeMMO as evidenced by the link provided by Seth above (thanks Seth, I remembered Desu mentioning this but couldn't find it 🙂 ).

 

I'm sorry that you did not encounter a shiny in the amount of time that you expected, and that another player was very lucky and found many in the same day, but this does not demonstrate a "broken" system. As I mentioned, this is exactly what one would expect from a random system, and "pseudorandomness" is not any kind of knock against PokeMMO or its implementation of random monster generation.

Hi, development information about the game such as client/server code is proprietary and the devs will not share it with players. They also don't take new applicants to the development team in general.

 

What is the intention of your question? As the article you link advises, it's effectively impossible to use "true" randomness in most computing applications, and thus secure pseudorandom generators are broadly accepted for use. Even if you knew the pseudorandom number generator method and the seed, it'd still be effectively impossible to use it to predict anything about the game unless you knew every other player's actions as well and could predict them in real-time.

Hi, if you use any autoclicking or macro software on your phone, it may run in the background even when you're not using it. If PokeMMO detects such software, you'll see the message you mention, and if you continue to run PokeMMO with this software, your account may be subject to punishment for prohibited third-party software (botting).

 

I would strongly recommend that you completely uninstall any such autoclicking or macro software if you want to continue playing PokeMMO on this device.

Hello,

It is very likely that you are misremembering the username of the account your character belongs to. Remember that the username and the character name are different. If you don't know what your account name would be, please raise a support ticket and staff will help you recover your old account:
https://support.pokemmo.com/

Also, remember that you must include an English translation of your messages. It is a requirement of using the forums.

 

_____

 

Hola,

Es muy probable que estés recordando mal el nombre de usuario de la cuenta a la que pertenece tu personaje. Recuerda que el nombre de usuario y el nombre del personaje son diferentes. Si no sabe cuál sería el nombre de su cuenta, envíe un ticket de soporte y el personal lo ayudará a recuperar su cuenta anterior:
https://support.pokemmo.com/

Además, recuerda que debes incluir una traducción al inglés de tus mensajes. Es un requisito para utilizar los foros.

Items like higher-tier potions, repels, pokeballs, and TMs are gated behind storyline progression. Some players will pay a premium for better items, either because they donated and sold some RP and are now flush with cash for their story, or because they're running an alt and it's more convenient than logging back into their main.

 

It's not any kind of scam usually.

Hi, this message means that PokeMMO can't connect to the game servers. You should troubleshoot your internet connexion: try switching networks such as from wifi to cellular data via tethering (portable hotspot), disable any VPNs you may be using, etc.

Hi, the game is not officially supported on ChromeOS; as new security features are introduced it's likely that old workarounds to get the Linux version to run on ChromeOS will no longer work. In such situations we would only say that the game isn't compatible with your device.

I'd recommend you try common workarounds like replacing your ROMs, disabling any mods, and reinstalling the game. Short of this you would have to do more technical investigations to solve the problem which are beyond what the support team would be able to do for an unsupported OS. You might like to start by investigating the console.log file in the  /pokemmo/log folder.

46 minutes ago, kenjimAd said:

Question! If i Killed a Shiny Suicune, will it be Comeback as Shiny & Old Guide too or something else?

 

  

On 9/1/2023 at 12:57 PM, Damian said:

...like alphas, the shininess is rolled on the first encounter and fixed afterwards for subsequent encounters.

 

It should be reencountered as shiny,. I hope you're game enough to try it 🙂

Hello,

 

If you believe that a punishment has been applied to you in error you may appeal the decision by raising a ticket at our support portal:

https://support.pokemmo.com/support/

 

Your appeal will be independently reviewed by a staff member unaffiliated with the punishment. However, please ensure that you are familiar with our rules in case the punishment was warranted, because as the message mentions, continuing to violate the rules may result in your account being permanently suspended:

https://pokemmo.com/code_of_conduct/

On 9/14/2023 at 2:57 AM, Quinzy18 said:

...

do encounters in these areas count towards the encounters needed to encounter one of the beasts? 

 

...

If I don't encounter a Raikou within these 2400 encounters, will they be counted towards hunting Entei in October? Or does each irl month reset this encounter counter, and I lose out on all of that effort?

 

Like shinies, the roll to encounter a dog beast is independent each time. Suppose that for the sake of argument the chance to encounter it is 1/5000 (I don't know if this is true). Every time you start a battle, imagine rolling a 5,000-sided die. If you roll the number 5,000 exactly, you encounter your monthly dog beast. If you roll any other number, it's just a normal encounter.

 

With this understanding, I would ask: If you roll the die 2,400 times in month 1, then in month 2, what's the chance that you roll a 5,000? Even if you rolled 2,400 times, the chance that you roll a 5,000 on a 5,000-sided die is still 1/5,000. So there's no way for the encounters to "accumulate". This is also true for shiny hunting. Doing more encounters does not increase the chance, it just increases the number of trials you've done in an attempt to get the outcome you want.

 

I hope this clarifies.

Quote

Round 1: MOVIES

 Round 2: HISTORY

Why couldn't you make it pop music and science? 😭

I will attend if the time/date is good, but don't plan around me as it's hard to get me with everyone else.