Shiny Rate: Details and Confusions

[Totila]

Hey there folks!

 

I was wondering about Shiny Rates. I've just watched a video where people made the math and decided that a 20% increase in shiny rate equals to 1/24k encounters averagely instead of 1/30k. That takes the 30k encounter and removes 20% of its value, decreasing it to 24k, which gives the new rate: 1/24k

 

However, this doesn't sound right to me. A 20% increase in rate means that the old rate should be multiplied by 120% (100% being the old value + 20% being the boost from the event). That would result in 1/25k rate, not 1/24k.

 

Another question would be about combining shiny rate boosts. Are they additive like people are saying? So if I get another shiny rate boost on top of the 20% from the event, let's say another 20%, I just add them up (resulting in 40%)? Or are they multiplicative? In this case they must first be turned into the rate of not finding a shiny, multiply them, and remove this value from 100% to find the new rate (in this case 36%)?

 

I know these things hardly matter (values are too close and they are all probabilities anyway), but my curiosity insists that I ask this.

[Kyu]

44 minutes ago, Totila said:

I was wondering about Shiny Rates. I've just watched a video where people made the math and decided that a 20% increase in shiny rate equals to 1/24k encounters averagely instead of 1/30k. That takes the 30k encounter and removes 20% of its value, decreasing it to 24k, which gives the new rate: 1/24k

 

However, this doesn't sound right to me. A 20% increase in rate means that the old rate should be multiplied by 120% (100% being the old value + 20% being the boost from the event). That would result in 1/25k rate, not 1/24k.

The holiday charm isn't actually a modifier, it's just a base rate override. It sets the base rate for any non-Mysterious Ball encounters to 1/24,000 (30,000 * 20% = 6,000).

 

44 minutes ago, Totila said:

Another question would be about combining shiny rate boosts. Are they additive like people are saying? So if I get another shiny rate boost on top of the 20% from the event, let's say another 20%, I just add them up (resulting in 40%)? Or are they multiplicative? In this case they must first be turned into the rate of not finding a shiny, multiply them, and remove this value from 100% to find the new rate (in this case 36%)?

Charms and active donor status apply their rate adjustments as multiplicative modifiers, such that you have your base rate multiplied by a negative value, like 1/(24000 * 0.9 * 0.9). This means that the maximum theoretical rate is 1/19440 for normal encounters (which is rolled for each monster encountered)

[Doctor]

1 hour ago, Kyu said:

The holiday charm isn't actually a modifier, it's just a base rate override. It sets the base rate for any non-Mysterious Ball encounters to 1/24,000 (30,000 * 20% = 6,000).

 

Charms and active donor status apply their rate adjustments as multiplicative modifiers, such that you have your base rate multiplied by a negative value, like 1/(24000 * 0.9 * 0.9). This means that the maximum theoretical rate is 1/19440 for normal encounters (which is rolled for each monster encountered)

Just to clarify a bit more, Kyu, do shiny charm/donator buffs affect Mysterious Balls or those override any shiny odds modifiers and only apply their own? Thanks for the response 🙂

[Totila]

1 hour ago, Kyu said:

The holiday charm isn't actually a modifier, it's just a base rate override. It sets the base rate for any non-Mysterious Ball encounters to 1/24,000 (30,000 * 20% = 6,000).

 

Charms and active donor status apply their rate adjustments as multiplicative modifiers, such that you have your base rate multiplied by a negative value, like 1/(24000 * 0.9 * 0.9). This means that the maximum theoretical rate is 1/19440 for normal encounters (which is rolled for each monster encountered)

Thanks for the answer @Kyu, I really appreciate it!

 

So, if I'm not doing any math wrong here, dividing the new rate by the base rate and decreasing it by 1 gives the increase in rate for finding a shiny. So, dividing 1/19440 by 1/30000 gives a result of around 1.5432 (which - 1 results in 0.5432), which means a 54.32% increase in rate for finding shinies, instead of the 40% people suggested, or the 36% I assumed incorrectly. Or am I doing something wrong here?

 

If my math is right, this means both the shiny charm and the donor actually increase the shiny rate by 11.11% each instead of 10%. And as these values are compounded, this means that both together actually increase the base rate by around 23.46%

Edited December 26, 2023 by Totila

[RysPicz]

1 hour ago, Kyu said:

The holiday charm isn't actually a modifier, it's just a base rate override. It sets the base rate for any non-Mysterious Ball encounters to 1/24,000 (30,000 * 20% = 6,000).

 

Charms and active donor status apply their rate adjustments as multiplicative modifiers, such that you have your base rate multiplied by a negative value, like 1/(24000 * 0.9 * 0.9). This means that the maximum theoretical rate is 1/19440 for normal encounters (which is rolled for each monster encountered)

jeez just tell us that shiny rate is fair and close the thread

[Munya]

27 minutes ago, Totila said:

Thanks for the answer @Kyu, I really appreciate it!

 

So, if I'm not doing any math wrong here, dividing the new rate by the base rate and decreasing it by 1 gives the increase in rate for finding a shiny. So, dividing 1/19440 by 1/30000 gives a result of around 1.5432 (which - 1 results in 0.5432), which means a 54.32% increase in rate for finding shinies, instead of the 40% people suggested, or the 36% I assumed incorrectly. Or am I doing something wrong here?

 

If my math is right, this means both the shiny charm and the donor actually increase the shiny rate by 11.11% each instead of 10%. And as these values are compounded, this means that both together actually increase the base rate by around 23.46%

I think, don't quote me on it, you would want to divide the current rate with the given changes by the unmodified rate, so 19440 that he gave by 30000, which is .648 or 64.8%, so the current rate is 64.8% of what it is unmodified so a 35.2% increase no?

[Totila]

10 minutes ago, Munya said:

I think, don't quote me on it, you would want to divide the current rate with the given changes by the unmodified rate, so 19440 that he gave by 30000, which is .648 or 64.8%, so the current rate is 64.8% of what it is unmodified so a 35.2% increase no?

I don't think this is correct. The rates are actually 1/19440 (0.00005144 or 0.005144%) and 1/30000 (0.00003333 or 0.003333%), not 19440 and 30000. 19440 is 64.8% of 30000, which from my understanding means that the expected amount of single encounters you need to go through to find 1 shiny with the new rate is 35.2% less then what you need without any type of shiny rate boosters. But I like that you brought the analysis of these specific values because IMO these values are much more important to the player then any other values we touched up to this point, as I think players are actually worried about how many single encounters they'll have to endure on average, and not percentages that aren't that 'relatable'. So Kyu sharing the 19440 value is actually a great service to the player base, because I think this is what players want to know.

 

I just like math too much for my own good, this is why I like discussing these technicalities because I'll probably learn something.

[Goku]

3 hours ago, Kyu said:

The holiday charm isn't actually a modifier, it's just a base rate override. It sets the base rate for any non-Mysterious Ball encounters to 1/24,000 (30,000 * 20% = 6,000).

 

Charms and active donor status apply their rate adjustments as multiplicative modifiers, such that you have your base rate multiplied by a negative value, like 1/(24000 * 0.9 * 0.9). This means that the maximum theoretical rate is 1/19440 for normal encounters (which is rolled for each monster encountered)

Kyu, I am still looking for my 10 year title ( actually 11). Been supporting you since the beginning. Give me most banned title. ♡

 

Edit: You can do this 🙂

Edited December 26, 2023 by Goku

[Kyu]

8 hours ago, Doctor said:

Just to clarify a bit more, Kyu, do shiny charm/donator buffs affect Mysterious Balls or those override any shiny odds modifiers and only apply their own? Thanks for the response 🙂

Mysterious Balls are also affected by shiny charm / donor status modifiers. They function as a base rate override

The system is structured as:

-> Pick a base rate. This can be 1/24,000 (current global rate) or ball rate (1/8,000, 1/4,000, or 1/2,500)

-> Multiply by donor status rate (0.9 if active, or 1.0 if not)
-> Multiply by shiny charm rate (0.9 if active, or 1.0 if not)

 

Which means that you get theoretical maximum odds as:
-> 1/19,440 for global rate

-> 1/6,480 for Mysterious Poke Ball rates

-> 1/3,240 for Mysterious Great/Premier Ball rates

-> 1/2,025 for Mysterious Ultra Ball rates

[MightyMichele]

8 hours ago, Kyu said:

Mysterious Balls are also affected by shiny charm / donor status modifiers. They function as a base rate override

[...]

 

Which means that you get theoretical maximum odds as:
-> 1/19,440 for global rate

-> 1/6,480 for Mysterious Poke Ball rates

-> 1/3,240 for Mysterious Great/Premier Ball rates

-> 1/2,025 for Mysterious Ultra Ball rates

Very nice data. Thank you for the event, Kyu. May I ask if those Mysterious Poke, Great/Premier and Ultra from 2022 got boost on shiny rate?

[ATQO]

1小时前，MightyMichele 说：

Very nice data. Thank you for the event, Kyu. May I ask if those Mysterious Poke, Great/Premier and Ultra from 2022 got boost on shiny rate?

Maybe it can't meet shiny because it used to

[SATANINHO]

10 hours ago, Kyu said:

Mysterious Balls are also affected by shiny charm / donor status modifiers. They function as a base rate override

The system is structured as:

-> Pick a base rate. This can be 1/24,000 (current global rate) or ball rate (1/8,000, 1/4,000, or 1/2,500)

-> Multiply by donor status rate (0.9 if active, or 1.0 if not)
-> Multiply by shiny charm rate (0.9 if active, or 1.0 if not)

 

Which means that you get theoretical maximum odds as:
-> 1/19,440 for global rate

-> 1/6,480 for Mysterious Poke Ball rates

-> 1/3,240 for Mysterious Great/Premier Ball rates

-> 1/2,025 for Mysterious Ultra Ball rates

 

Kyu, so the rate of encounters in nature or eggs remains the same, and encounters in balls are reduced, right?

[Doctor]

3 hours ago, MightyMichele said:

Very nice data. Thank you for the event, Kyu. May I ask if those Mysterious Poke, Great/Premier and Ultra from 2022 got boost on shiny rate?

They aren’t boosted like this year’s, you can check the tooltip of both and you’ll see the difference between them. It’s the first thing I checked because I hoarded a lot of those and was too lazy to open them, I wish they had boosted odds as well 😞

[SergioAniball]

@Kyu 

Hello, I would like to know what the probability is for eggs in the case of shyni, and as a 2nd concern, this probability is given by receiving the egg from the old man (having the possibility of storing the eggs and perhaps taking advantage of an hour of shiny amulet) or is it given to the hatch the eggs (storing them would not be a good idea if I want to take advantage of the amulet time)

[MissSamus]

On 12/28/2023 at 7:47 PM, SergioAniball said:

@Kyu 

Hello, I would like to know what the probability is for eggs in the case of shyni, and as a 2nd concern, this probability is given by receiving the egg from the old man (having the possibility of storing the eggs and perhaps taking advantage of an hour of shiny amulet) or is it given to the hatch the eggs (storing them would not be a good idea if I want to take advantage of the amulet time)

Shiny is determined at the creation of the egg.  so yes you can create and horde them and open them at your leisure.

[Deliburd]

1/30,000 1/20,000 1/100,000 is the same. In the end it's just luck. Also, if it is 20%. It's 20%.

[MissSamus]

On 12/26/2023 at 8:51 PM, Kyu said:

Mysterious Balls are also affected by shiny charm / donor status modifiers. They function as a base rate override

The system is structured as:

-> Pick a base rate. This can be 1/24,000 (current global rate) or ball rate (1/8,000, 1/4,000, or 1/2,500)

-> Multiply by donor status rate (0.9 if active, or 1.0 if not)
-> Multiply by shiny charm rate (0.9 if active, or 1.0 if not)

 

Which means that you get theoretical maximum odds as:
-> 1/19,440 for global rate

-> 1/6,480 for Mysterious Poke Ball rates

-> 1/3,240 for Mysterious Great/Premier Ball rates

-> 1/2,025 for Mysterious Ultra Ball rates

Does the holiday bonus of +20% affect the base rate of mysterious balls before donator and shiny charm are adjusted?  I'm assuming from your theoretical maximum rates that it does not, but I would love clarification before I open them before or after the event.  Thanks in advance.

Edited December 30, 2023 by MissSamus

[Alfalow]

7 minutes ago, MissSamus said:

Does the holiday bonus of +20% affect the base rate of mysterious balls before donator and shiny charm are adjusted?  I'm assuming from your theoretical maximum rates that it does not, but I would love clarification before I open them before or after the event.  Thanks in advance.

 

Nope.

[MissSamus]

3 hours ago, Alfalow said:

 

Nope.

Oh, I missed that.  Thanks for the heads up.

[Jgaw]

 no shiny here

[Goku]

10 minutes ago, Jgaw said:

 no shiny here

I feel the same. I had a ton of encounters before event. (Keep in mind all my encounters are with donator and charm.) I went hard for Articuno. Did like 200 expert lures and 30-35 legendary lures before I finally got it. That's another few thousand encounters with the christmas buff. That 1/19k rate is trolling. I see a lot of people getting shinies from mysterious balls but I feel like spending 20-30mil (Fair amount to pull a shiny from them) is kinda meh unless you get a staryu, bagon or happiny and they are on the "rare spectrum". After grinding so hard for Articuno I'm judt eyeing that wishing stone thinking... I should probably do it but I am all gassed out xDD

[Jgaw]

2 hours ago, Goku said:

I feel the same. I had a ton of encounters before event. (Keep in mind all my encounters are with donator and charm.) I went hard for Articuno. Did like 200 expert lures and 30-35 legendary lures before I finally got it. That's another few thousand encounters with the christmas buff. That 1/19k rate is trolling. I see a lot of people getting shinies from mysterious balls but I feel like spending 20-30mil (Fair amount to pull a shiny from them) is kinda meh unless you get a staryu, bagon or happiny and they are on the "rare spectrum". After grinding so hard for Articuno I'm judt eyeing that wishing stone thinking... I should probably do it but I am all gassed out xDD

Allow me to tell u sthg about the game

And its proven but nobody wants to talk about it, things are obvious 

If u have plenty of good cosmetics in ur inventory then ur chances decreases of getting a shiny

New players are Those Who have more luck for shinies, it s logic, giving à shiny to a New player makes him adore the game more and stay tuned, more players more hype for pokemmo platform. Old players if they keep getting shinies, and based on their expérience in the game will harm the market

So to keep the game economics in à balance, depriving players from shinies is à must, it s Officially said it s not the case, but it s is

Now, give me a shiny legendary and i Will stop posting eternally  😄

[Shadow]

30 minutes ago, Jgaw said:

Allow me to tell u sthg about the game

And its proven but nobody wants to talk about it, things are obvious 

If u have plenty of good cosmetics in ur inventory then ur chances decreases of getting a shiny

New players are Those Who have more luck for shinies.

😄

Holy moly mate it took me 4 years to get my first shiny, and i am poor like a sewage rat, and by then the most expensive thing I had was a headphones set (both in-game and IRL lmao)

[Quakkz]

1 hour ago, Jgaw said:

Allow me to tell u sthg about the game

And its proven but nobody wants to talk about it, things are obvious 

If u have plenty of good cosmetics in ur inventory then ur chances decreases of getting a shiny

New players are Those Who have more luck for shinies, it s logic, giving à shiny to a New player makes him adore the game more and stay tuned, more players more hype for pokemmo platform. Old players if they keep getting shinies, and based on their expérience in the game will harm the market

So to keep the game economics in à balance, depriving players from shinies is à must, it s Officially said it s not the case, but it s is

Now, give me a shiny legendary and i Will stop posting eternally  😄

since you claim that its provem im excited to see your evidence.

 

[Poratne]

Can we expect that this shiny modifier is gonna be a thing for every xMas event now, and if so how likely is the possibility that u guys add it for all other events like LNY, Halloween & Anni. 

 

That u guys were short on time and did this as a last minute resort is clear as day, but it seems that many people quite like the change. @Kyu