Rychell Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 The thing is, i got 3000 hordes looking for shiny magikarp, no luck for me. I got the money to buy one from gtl but still i want the OT. Should i buy a donator status ticket and shiny amulet and keep going ahother week or just buy it from gtl, what would you recommend? Link to comment
Juaske Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 (edited) 3000 hordes = 15000 magikarps, with the rate being 1/30k your odds of getting a shiny in 15000 encounters are only 40%, or in other words , it was more likely you wouldnt get it. For comparison if you'd done your encounters on donator status your odds would've been 43% to get it , 57% not to get it, only a 3% difference. So donator is definetly not necessary, just keep hunting and you'll find it eventually bud, good luck Edited July 25, 2022 by Juaske Johnwaynee and Rychell 1 1 Link to comment
ScizoMonkey Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Juaske said: 3000 hordes = 15000 magikarps, with the rate being 1/30k your odds of getting a shiny in 15000 encounters are only 40%, or in other words , it was more likely you wouldnt get it. For comparison if you'd done your encounters on donator status your odds would've been 43% to get it , 57% not to get it, only a 3% difference. So donator is definetly not necessary, just keep hunting and you'll find it eventually bud, good luck 15000 is the half of 30k. Why the odds aren't 50%? Rychell 1 Link to comment
Juaske Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, ScizoMonkey said: 15000 is the half of 30k. Why the odds aren't 50%? If you do 30000 encounters you're not guaranteed a shiny, so the odds arent 100%, in the same way, if you do 15000 encounters your odds are not 50%, and if you do 10000 encounters your odds arent 33% etc. When calculating probabilty we multiply, we dont add so the odds never get to 100% CanadaSorry and Rychell 1 1 Link to comment
Elizn Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 Keep persisting with it @Rychell hopefully you will find one soon :D Took me literally months to find my Shiny Pachirisu, Some people find them a lot quicker than others Rychell 1 Link to comment
Rychell Posted July 25, 2022 Author Share Posted July 25, 2022 Thanks for the feedback, you cracks! Link to comment
Jgaw Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 I won't break ur ambition, but shunting is money wasting, energy draining, wasted time. If ur priority is an OT so im pretty sure u ll get it just keep spammin sweet scent and u ll get the golden fish, if ur priority is gaining money from shinies, then i advise u not to keep hunting. HermitG, Rychell and ScizoMonkey 3 Link to comment
Akshit Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 @RychellIt took me few weeks but it's one of the easiest shunting spots out there. Donator not really necessary but if you're rich enough to not care go for it. I personally found mine with donator + charm. However I have found around 20 or so OT without donator either, so there's no guaranteed working strategy out there. All the best! Rychell 1 Link to comment
hamizoss Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 always depends on luck so that hunt can finishs early or maybe lately , my maikarp hunt took like 1 week it was my fisrt shiny , just keep hunting and always say with yourself "shiny tomorrow" if you didnt find say that ill find it again tomorrow and keep like that until get it , you will find it ofc , good luck ! Rychell 1 Link to comment
xRdZiiiN Posted July 25, 2022 Share Posted July 25, 2022 keep trying, you will get it eventually for sure, good luck. Rychell 1 Link to comment
Rychell Posted July 29, 2022 Author Share Posted July 29, 2022 You were right guys, I was close to get it, BUT, let me tell you a little story here. In the past july 26th, horde #3895 the shiny showed up. I was very happy until my battery run out. When I could reconnect my session was ended by the server, I lost the shiny. The message below in this screenshot say the following: "Some actions were restricted for 18 seconds because you were defeated when you logged out". After that I was crying for about 20 minutes then I posted another thread here wich was deleted dueste to some language rules I didnt know (you can't make threads enterely and only on spanish language. @Sethwarned me about). Took an enterely day for rest, I was very dissapointed. Yesterday I began looking for the shiny again, I didnt reset the counter, now I am 5500 hordes, and battery full hahah😅, that's all. Wish me luck, I will put a screenshot with the shiny here when I get it. And thank you all for the support and good will 🙌 Seth, Akshit and Jeiseun 1 1 1 Link to comment
Seth Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 29 minutes ago, Rychell said: You were right guys, I was close to get it, BUT, let me tell you a little story here. In the past july 26th, horde #3895 the shiny showed up. I was very happy until my battery run out. When I could reconnect my session was ended by the server, I lost the shiny. The message below in this screenshot say the following: "Some actions were restricted for 18 seconds because you were defeated when you logged out". After that I was crying for about 20 minutes then I posted another thread here wich was deleted dueste to some language rules I didnt know (you can't make threads enterely and only on spanish language. @Sethwarned me about). Took an enterely day for rest, I was very dissapointed. Yesterday I began looking for the shiny again, I didnt reset the counter, now I am 5500 hordes, and battery full hahah😅, that's all. Wish me luck, I will put a screenshot with the shiny here when I get it. And thank you all for the support and good will 🙌 You will get it before you know it ^^ Good luck! Rychell 1 Link to comment
Oldenman Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 On 7/24/2022 at 9:46 PM, ScizoMonkey said: 15000 is the half of 30k. Why the odds aren't 50%? 90% of gamblers quit just before they hit the jackpot Rychell, ChihuahuanRaven, awkways and 1 other 4 Link to comment
razimove Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 On 7/25/2022 at 5:46 AM, ScizoMonkey said: 15000 is the half of 30k. Why the odds aren't 50%? odds are independent, not static, they don't add up, each encounter has 1/30k chance of being shiny, no matter how many you have done in the past. Therefor you need to calc that accordingly, and not assume it's 50%. Link to comment
Rychell Posted August 1, 2022 Author Share Posted August 1, 2022 7776 hordes, 13 days, mission acomplished, GG! -------------------------------------------------------------- Goku, nethatar, Elizn and 2 others 4 1 Link to comment
Rychell Posted August 3, 2022 Author Share Posted August 3, 2022 2 days later, while no shiny hunting...somebody up there has blessed me Link to comment
TheCurseTTV Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 Got mine today after 21,000 encounters. keep trying Rychell 1 Link to comment
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