soyhector Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, kuplion said: ty bro! Link to comment
MoxieMozzie Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 36240 Encounters! Edited December 29, 2020 by MoxieMozzie I'm stupid kuplion, Pecaeme, magneto2k4 and 18 others 21 Link to comment
RysPicz Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, MoxieMozzie said: 360240 Encounters! Spoiler shiny rate is fair EmmaCACHJ, Parke and Bestfriends 3 Link to comment
NewBlackRadja Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 24 & 25 OT IDK Encounters Bestfriends, Revz, Akshit and 10 others 13 Link to comment
OrangeManiac Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Finally :) Lin, HerickJS, Zymogen and 21 others 24 Link to comment
RysPicz Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 SHINY RATE IS FAIR SRIF Bearminator, Suneet, magneto2k4 and 19 others 22 Link to comment
DoubleJ Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 33 minutes ago, RysPicz said: SHINY RATE IS FAIR SRIF #2? Link to comment
RysPicz Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, DoubleJ said: #2? First horse ever. I think this is my 7th or 8th OT, not sure DoubleJ 1 Link to comment
DoubleJ Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, RysPicz said: First horse ever. I think this is my 7th or 8th OT, not sure I can still remember Persian Link to comment
RysPicz Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Just now, DoubleJ said: I can still remember Persian 2 Persians in fact Link to comment
OrangeManiac Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Hi it's me again Rache, Suneet, pikabuuh and 13 others 16 Link to comment
bastianh7 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Can someone please explain me this image? Because in the same and excellent guide there is this sentence: "Important to remember: There is no stacking of encounters in PokeMMO The system doesn't track your encounters. This means that even if you are at your FIRST encounter or your 123456th encounter, the chance is still either 1/30000, 1/27000 etc. If you want your shiny, you have to be dedicated and patient." Surely I'm wrong but it seems to me that I increase my odds if I have a lot of encounters Link to comment
OrangeManiac Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, bastianh7 said: SRIF That percentage of finding a shiny in X amount of encounters always applies to the next X amount of encounters. Simple as that. Zymogen and bastianh7 2 Link to comment
Zymogen Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, bastianh7 said: Can someone please explain me this image? Because in the same and excellent guide there is this sentence: "Important to remember: There is no stacking of encounters in PokeMMO The system doesn't track your encounters. This means that even if you are at your FIRST encounter or your 123456th encounter, the chance is still either 1/30000, 1/27000 etc. If you want your shiny, you have to be dedicated and patient." Surely I'm wrong but it seems to me that I increase my odds if I have a lot of encounters To add what Orange said, just because the rate is ~1/31k, it doesn’t mean that you will be guaranteed a shiny in 31k encounters. Every single encounter is a separate roll of a 31k sided die Edited December 30, 2020 by Zymogen bastianh7 1 Link to comment
TheBloo Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, bastianh7 said: Can someone please explain me this image? Because in the same and excellent guide there is this sentence: "Important to remember: There is no stacking of encounters in PokeMMO The system doesn't track your encounters. This means that even if you are at your FIRST encounter or your 123456th encounter, the chance is still either 1/30000, 1/27000 etc. If you want your shiny, you have to be dedicated and patient." Surely I'm wrong but it seems to me that I increase my odds if I have a lot of encounters Once you get to that 30,000~ encounter, the pokemon will be shiny. awkways 1 Link to comment
Seth Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, bastianh7 said: Can someone please explain me this image? Because in the same and excellent guide there is this sentence: "Important to remember: There is no stacking of encounters in PokeMMO The system doesn't track your encounters. This means that even if you are at your FIRST encounter or your 123456th encounter, the chance is still either 1/30000, 1/27000 etc. If you want your shiny, you have to be dedicated and patient." Surely I'm wrong but it seems to me that I increase my odds if I have a lot of encounters Hello there. Remember to read the figure text: "In summary, this shows the odds of finding a shiny (in percentage) based on the amount of encounters you have (based on a binomial distribution (X = 1-(1-(shiny_rate_in_numbers))(amount_of_encounters))).For instance, you will have a 67.08% (with donator) or 63.21% (without donator) to encounter/hatch a shiny within 30000 encounters based on this estimation. In addition, a binomial distribution estimates that 50% of the player base should find their shiny by 20979 encounters (in a population sample with 1/30000 shiny rate) or 18712 encounters (in a population sample with 1/27000 shiny rate).Another interesting read into the table shows that even at 300,000 encounters, there is no guarantee that you meet a shiny (99.995% that you should have met a shiny by 300,000 encounters with a 1/30000 rate) - but that is in the extreme coincidences." This figure is based on the probability of finding a shiny based on population with X amount of players. There is no way to know when you will encounter a shiny. The binomial distribution just shows there could be lucky players that finds a shiny within <100 encounters while others are that unlucky to be at 300.000 encounters without a shiny. That's how probability works. There is no guarantee to encounter a shiny as the chances of a shiny will always be 1/30.000 no matter how many encounters you have. davide520, TheFrenchiestFry, bastianh7 and 3 others 4 2 Link to comment
bastianh7 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Sethsen said: Hello there. Remember to read the figure text: "In summary, this shows the odds of finding a shiny (in percentage) based on the amount of encounters you have (based on a binomial distribution (X = 1-(1-(shiny_rate_in_numbers))(amount_of_encounters))).For instance, you will have a 67.08% (with donator) or 63.21% (without donator) to encounter/hatch a shiny within 30000 encounters based on this estimation. In addition, a binomial distribution estimates that 50% of the player base should find their shiny by 20979 encounters (in a population sample with 1/30000 shiny rate) or 18712 encounters (in a population sample with 1/27000 shiny rate).Another interesting read into the table shows that even at 300,000 encounters, there is no guarantee that you meet a shiny (99.995% that you should have met a shiny by 300,000 encounters with a 1/30000 rate) - but that is in the extreme coincidences." This figure is based on the probability of finding a shiny based on population with X amount of players. There is no way to know when you will encounter a shiny. The binomial distribution just shows there could be lucky players that finds a shiny within <100 encounters while others are that unlucky to be at 300.000 encounters without a shiny. That's how probability works. There is no guarantee to encounter a shiny as the chances of a shiny will always be 1/30.000 no matter how many encounters you have. Thank you Edited December 30, 2020 by bastianh7 Seth 1 Link to comment
RysPicz Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, bastianh7 said: Can someone please explain me this image? Because in the same and excellent guide there is this sentence: "Important to remember: There is no stacking of encounters in PokeMMO The system doesn't track your encounters. This means that even if you are at your FIRST encounter or your 123456th encounter, the chance is still either 1/30000, 1/27000 etc. If you want your shiny, you have to be dedicated and patient." Surely I'm wrong but it seems to me that I increase my odds if I have a lot of encounters I have allowed myself to correct your table with shiny rate/ shiny percentage/ encounters kuplion, Seth, Suneet and 15 others 15 3 Link to comment
CaptnBaklava Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Sethsen said: while others are that unlucky to be at 300.000 encounters without a shiny. dont threat me like that Seth 1 Link to comment
Zigh Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 That was rather fast, knowing my rates :) 73215 encounters since magikarp V4 Srif Seth, Akshit, HerickJS and 14 others 17 Link to comment
FC Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 6 hours ago, Zigh said: That was rather fast, knowing my rates :) 73215 encounters since magikarp V4 Srif Cute Charm worked? Link to comment
HerickJS Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 34th TheBloo, Zilan, pikabuuh and 7 others 10 Link to comment
Riesz Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 I am coming here daily to remind myself SRIF johnellin, HerickJS and bastianh7 3 Link to comment
awkways Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 3 hours ago, HerickJS said: 34th twf u mention blood's shiny and find nearly a carbon copy of his Shiny OT #39 - 48,830 wild + 9,970 eggs since the last UwU thanks @HerickJS HerickJS, hannahtaylor, GodofKawaii and 10 others 13 Link to comment
Zigh Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 10 hours ago, FC said: Cute Charm worked? Nope, another male to the list FC 1 Link to comment
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